Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Brunson, Lakers, Hornets, Heat)

A major 10-game NBA slate is set for Tuesday, March 3, giving yours truly plenty of different options for today’s NBA Best Bets.

Truth be told, I’ve been slumping as of late, and a bounce-back night would go a long way to keeping this season’s record in the green. So why don’t we make that happen?

There are several bets to consider on March 3, including a player prop pick for New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson, who has scored the ball less as of late but is shooting the 3-ball at a high level.

Plus, there are three teams that I love to win outright on Tuesday, making for a fun three-team moneyline parlay.

Across the 10 games tonight, I have four bets that involve five different games. Let’s dive into the odds and analysis behind each pick!

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 186-154 (+4.31 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1477-1391-27 (+37.47 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Chicago Bulls Team Total UNDER 108.5 (-110)
Moussa Diabate 10+ Rebounds (-148)
Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-123)
Three-Team Moneyline Parlay (-146)

Chicago Bulls Team Total UNDER 108.5 (-110)

The Oklahoma City Thunder have several key players out of the lineup on Tuesday night, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein and Ajay Mitchell, but I’m backing their defensive infrastructure in this game.

OKC has the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA and is allowing the second-fewest points per game (107.8) in the league this season. Even though some of their best offensive players are out, the Thunder will still have defensive stalwarts like Lu Dort, Chet Holmgren, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace in action against this Chicago Bulls team.

Chicago won its last game, but it was on an 11-game skid before that. The Bulls have won just two of their last 15 games and are dead last in the NBA in offensive rating (106.2) during that stretch.

That makes them incredibly hard to trust against an elite OKC defense that held Dallas to just 87 points on Sunday. While Chicago is a top-10 team in the league in pace this season, the Thunder are just 14th and rank 19th in that metric over their last 15 games.

I’ll fade this struggling Chicago offense that has six games with 107 or fewer points since Feb. 1.

Moussa Diabate 10+ Rebounds (-148)

Since returning from a suspension, Charlotte Hornets big man Moussa Diabate has been a beast on the boards, grabbing seven, 11 and 11 rebounds in his last three games.

Diabate is now averaging 8.7 rebounds per game for the entire 2025-26 season and 9.9 boards per night as a starter. He has a great matchup against a short-handed Dallas Mavericks team on Tuesday that ranks 20th in rebound percentage and 27th in opponent rebounds per game.

The Hornets big man was held to just five boards in his last meeting with Dallas, but since then he’s grabbed double-digit rebounds in five of eight games.

I’ll trust him to get 10 or more boards for the third game in a row on Tuesday.

Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-123)

New York Knicks star Jalen Brunson has taken a bit of a back seat as a scorer as of late, averaging 23.8 points on 18.4 shots per game since Feb. 1. Brunson is averaging 20.1 shots per game for the entire 2025-26 season, so it’s clear his usage has dropped a little during this stretch.

However, the Knicks star has shot the 3-ball well recently, hitting at least three shots from deep in seven of his last 11 games. Over that 11-game stretch, Brunson is shooting 38.0 percent from deep on 7.2 attempts per game, and he’s cleared this line in three games in a row.

The Raptors are a top-10 defense this season, and they do rank 10th in the league in opponent 3s made per game. Brunson has been up and down against them from beyond the arc, going 1-for-6, 6-for-9 and 0-for-3 in his three games against Toronto.

Still, he’s taken at least six 3-pointers in 11 of his 13 games since Feb. 1. I think the star guard is worth a look on Tuesday after going 11 for his last 20 from 3 (three games) while clearing this prop in each of them.

Three-Team Moneyline Parlay (-146)

Miami Heat Moneyline
Charlotte Hornets Moneyline
Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline

Miami Heat Moneyline

The Miami Heat are heavily favored at home on Tuesday night against the Brooklyn Nets, who have lost eight games in a row and are in clear tank mode at this point in the season.

Miami is one of the better home teams in the NBA (18-11 this season), and it has dominated teams that are below .500, going 19-7.

That’s a bad sign for the Nets, who rank dead last in the NBA in net rating over their last 15 games (-13.2) while winning just three of those matchups outright. During that same stretch, Miami is seventh in net rating (+6.8) despite going just 8-7.

The Heat are within striking distance of the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference, and they haven’t squandered many opportunities against sub-.500 opponents. Brooklyn is just 12-17-1 against the spread as a road dog this season, posting an average scoring margin of -12.6 points in those games.

I think the Heat will roll on Tuesday night.

Charlotte Hornets Moneyline

The Charlotte Hornets have the fourth-best net rating (+10.5) in the NBA over their last 15 games, going 12-3 during that stretch.

Now, they’re heavily favored at home against a Dallas Mavericks team that likely won’t have Cooper Flagg (doubtful, foot) and has dropped 13 of its last 15 games.

Dallas is 25th in net rating (-8.2) during that stretch, and it has been one of the worst road teams in the NBA this season, going 7-19 in 26 games. To make matters worse, the Mavs are just 7-11 against the spread when set as road underdogs.

Charlotte, on the other hand, is 5-4 against the spread when favored at home, posting an average scoring margin of +9.6 in those games. The Hornets are clearly the superior offensive team with Flagg out for Dallas, so I don’t mind taking them to win a fifth game in a row on Tuesday.

Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline

The Los Angeles Lakers have been a tough team to trust this season because they have one of the 10-worst defenses in the NBA, but I’m buying them at home against the New Orleans Pelicans on Tuesday.

L.A. is 3-0 against New Orleans this season, winning by eight on the road, 12 at home and 14 on the road in their first three meetings. Now, the Pelicans may be without Zion Williamson (ankle, questionable) for Tuesday’s matchup.

That’s a major concern, as the Pels are just 3-14 straight up in the 17 games that Williamson has missed this season. New Orleans has also struggled on the road overall, going 8-22 straight up in 30 games.

The Lakers are one of the best teams against the spread when favored at home this season (13-7), and they don’t have a single player on the injury report on Tuesday. L.A. is just two games out of the No. 3 seed in the West, and I think it’s been a little undervalued given all the injuries it has dealt with in the 2025-26 season.

The Lakers should complete the trifecta in this parlay on March 3.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.