Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Brunson, Timberwolves-Spurs, Tyrese Maxey)

Who will make a statement in Wednesday’s conference semifinal Game 2 matchups?

The Minnesota Timberwolves stole the show on Monday night, pulling off a massive upset against the San Antonio Spurs to take a 1-0 series lead. The Wolves are major underdogs again in Game 2, but Anthony Edwards’ return has restored life into the Wolves’ season.

In the Eastern Conference, Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks showed why they have the best net rating (plus-21.4) in the NBA Playoffs, beating the Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points to take a 1-0 series lead.

Philly should respond in Game 2, especially since it rested its starters down the stretch of Game 1, but the Knicks are once again favorites on Wednesday night.

So, how should we bet on Wednesday’s action?

I’m eyeing two player props and a total, including a prop for Brunson as looks to continue his insane heater against Philly over the last few playoff runs for New York.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 283-244 (-4.08 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1574-1482-27 (+29.06 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Jalen Brunson OVER 26.5 Points (-119)
Minnesota Timberwolves-San Antonio Spurs UNDER 215.5 (-110)
Tyrese Maxey OVER 24.5 Points (-105)

Jalen Brunson OVER 26.5 Points (-119)

Dating back to the 2024 playoffs, Jalen Brunson has now scored 35 or more points in five straight games against this Sixers team, and I think his points prop is a little low in Game 2.

Jalen Brunson last 5 playoff games against Philly:

39 PTS, 13 AST, 13-27 FG
47 PTS, 10 AST, 18-34 FG
40 PTS, 6 AST, 15-32 FG
41 PTS, 12 AST, 13-27 FG
35 PTS, 3 AST, 12-18 FG (Tonight)

Absolute dominance.
— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) May 5, 2026

Brunson made quick work of Kelly Oubre Jr. and VJ Edgecombe in Game 1, scoring 27 points in the first half, finishing with 35 on an efficient 12-of-18 shooting. While I’d expect some shooting regression, Brunson looked extremely comfortable attacking this Philly defense, and he hunted Joel Embiid in switches with the big man still recovering from an appendectomy.

After some down games against Atlanta, Brunson has scored 39, 17 (in just 28 minutes) and 35 points in his last three games, shooting 62.3 percent from the field and 41.2 percent from 3 during that stretch.

The star guard is now averaging 29.6 points per game in the playoffs as a member of the Knicks, and I think this prop is too low for him against a Philly defense that has not been able to slow him down in the postseason.

Minnesota Timberwolves-San Antonio Spurs UNDER 215.5 (-110)

The Timberwolves and Spurs both have elite defenses, and that was evident in Game 1 with these teams combining for 206 total points.

Victor Wembanyama blocked 12 shots in the loss for San Antonio, and Rudy Gobert locked him down on the other end, holding the All-NBA center to just 11 points. Gobert has been elite on the defensive end in the playoffs after slowing down Nikola Jokic in the first round.

So, I’m targeting the UNDER in Game 2 of this series.

San Antonio has a defensive rating of 103.2 in the playoffs, and it was third in the league in defensive rating during the regular season. The Wolves’ defensive rating is a little higher in the playoffs (107.9), but they have allowed 102 or fewer points in four of their last five playoff games, hitting the UNDER on this total in all four of those matchups.

Meanwhile, the Spurs have gone UNDER 215.5 points in five of their six playoff games, only clearing this in Game 3 against Portland (when Wemby didn’t play).

The UNDER is 51-38 for both of these teams in the 2025-26 season, and I am going to keep riding that trend with San Antonio’s young squad struggling a bit on offense in Game 1.

Tyrese Maxey OVER 24.5 Points (-105)

Tyrese Maxey shockingly took a backseat in the offense for Philly early in Game 1, shooting just two shots in the first quarter. He finished with just 13 points on nine shots,as Nick Nurse waved the white flag during the third quarter of Game 1.

I’m buying a bounce back from the All-Star guard, as Maxey has given the Knicks issues this season – and in past playoff runs. Two years ago, Maxey torched the Knicks in the playoffs, scoring 25 or more points in three games, including matchups with 33, 35 and 46 points. He also thrived against New York in the regular season, scoring 30, 36, 22 and 32 points in four meetings.

The Knicks did a solid job on Maxey in Game 1 with Mikal Bridges, Jose Alvarado and Miles McBride drawing the assignment, but I do think there is a path to more shots for Maxey in Game 2. The Sixers were intent on playing through Joel Embiid early in Game 1, but I wouldn't be shocked if Nick Nurse tries to get Maxey going early in Game 2.

Remember, in Game 4 against Boston (Embiid’s first game this postseason), Maxey took a backseat and scored just 22 points in a loss. He then responded with 25, 30 and 30 in the three wins to complete a 3-1 series comeback.

Maxey is coming off a regular season where he averaged 28.3 points per game, and I’d expect him and the Sixers to hunt Brunson more in Game 2 than they did on Monday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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