Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Brunson, Trae Young, Bucks-Wolves)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Sunday, Dec. 21.

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson is a great prop target on Dec. 21. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

It may be Week 16 in the NFL season, but the NBA season is round into full form ahead of a loaded Christmas Day slate on Thursday.

Sunday’s action features six games, including an afternoon clash between the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks to jump start the day’s action. 

In addition to that game, there are some intriguing battles between potential playoff teams, including the New York Knicks hosting the Miami Heat and the Minnesota Timberwolves taking on the Milwaukee Bucks. 

Minnesota is coming off a huge win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday night, and it’s favored with the Bucks set to be without two-time league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo once again on Sunday.

There are several ways to bet on this slate of NBA games, and I have a few player props and sides that I’m considering. 

Here’s a full breakdown of my favorite plays for the six games on Dec. 21. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 102-79 (+5.75 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1393-1316-27 (+38.90 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Trae Young 8+ Assists (-157)
• Jalen Brunson OVER 27.5 Points (-114)
• Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5 (-105) vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Trae Young 8+ Assists (-157)

After missing over a month with an MCL sprain, Trae Young returned to action against the Charlotte Hornets on Thursday, putting up eight points, 10 assists and a steal in just over 20 minutes of action.

There’s a good chance Young remains on a minutes limit on Sunday, but the star guard has proven that he can still dish out a ton of assists in limited action. Young has averaged double-digit dimes for three seasons in a row and at least 8.1 assists per game in every season in his NBA career.

Now, he takes on a Chicago team that is just 23rd in the NBA in opponent assists per game and 27th in opponent points per game.

In limited action this season, Young is averaging 8.2 assists on 14.3 potential assists per game. He has three games with at least 10 dimes, and I think he’s a steal at this number against a terrible Chicago defense. 

Jalen Brunson OVER 27.5 Points (-114)

Jalen Brunson has put together a few down shooting games since the NBA Cup Championship against the San Antonio Spurs:

• vs. Spurs: 25 points (11-of-27 FG)
• @ Pacers: 25 points (10-of-23 FG)
• vs. 76ers: 22 points (7-of-22 FG)

It hasn’t been a great stretch for the All-NBA guard, but his usage is still alive and well in this potent New York offense.

That sets up well for Brunson on Sunday against the Miami Heat, who have played a ton of high-scoring games because they play at the fastest pace in the NBA. In his lone game against Miami this season, Brunson had 37 points (he missed the other two matchups with an injury), and he’s scored 31 or more points in three of his last five meetings with the Heat.

The Knicks star is averaging 28.4 points per game while shooting 47.7 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from 3. He’s also taking 21.1 shots per game – the second-most of his NBA career.

I’m buying Brunson in a favorable matchup on Sunday evening. 

Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5 (-105) vs. Milwaukee Bucks

The Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off their best win of the 2025-26 season, and now they get to take on a struggling Milwaukee Bucks team that is down Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The Bucks are just 2-9 in the 11 games that Antetokounmpo has missed, and they recently lost on the road to the Brooklyn Nets by 45 points. When Giannis is out this season, Milwaukee is 0-4 on the road with double-digit losses to Detroit, Charlotte and Brooklyn.

Not great.

Plus, the Bucks are just 4-8 against the spread overall on the road this season.

That sets up well for Anthony Edwards and company, even though they have not been great against the spread at home (6-9) this season.

The Wolves have been red hot as of late even with Edwards banged up, winning eight of their last 10 games while posting a net rating of +4.9 during that stretch. The Bucks? Well, they have a net rating of -5.5 during their last 10 games.

I can’t trust this Milwaukee offense without Giannis, and the Timberwolves have proven they can compete with the class of the NBA. I expect Minnesota to roll on Sunday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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