Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Johnson, Giannis, Thunder, Suns)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Sunday, Jan. 11.

Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson is a solid prop target on Sunday. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

A massive 10-game NBA slate begins with a pair of afternoon matchups and ends with a clash between the Houston Rockets and Sacramento Kings at 9 p.m. EST.

I’m eyeing six different games for five plays in today’s NBA Best Bets, including player props for Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo and Atlanta Hawks star Jalen Johnson.

In addition to that, there is a two-team parlay that I love after making some adjustments to some spreads for these home favorites.

This season has been a strong one, as a 2-for-2 day on Thursday pushed us to +14.57 units. Let’s keep the momentum going on a huge Sunday in the NBA.  

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 132-95 (+14.57 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1423-1332-27 (+47.73 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Brooklyn Nets-Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 220.5 (-112)
• Portland Trail Blazers +4.5 (-105) vs. New York Knicks
• Oklahoma City Thunder-Phoenix Suns Alt Spread Parlay (-154)
• Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 28.5 Points (-116)
• Jalen Johnson OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-131)

Brooklyn Nets-Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 220.5 (-112)

The Brooklyn Nets are averaging the fewest points per game (109.1) in the NBA this season, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that they’ve hit the UNDER in 20 of their 35 games. 

On Sunday, Brooklyn is down top scorer Michael Porter Jr. (rest), which could cause even more offensive issues for the Nets. To Brooklyn’s credit, it is No. 10 in the NBA in opponent points per game, so it can defend at a high level in this game against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Memphis is set to be without Ja Morant on Sunday, as he’s one of several rotation players (Ty Jerome, Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Scotty Pippen Jr.) who will not play in this matchup.

I think that makes this a perfect game to take the UNDER, as Memphis is 23-15 to the UNDER in 38 games.

The Grizzlies rank in the bottom 10 in the league in points per game, and they certainly have a lower offensive ceiling with Morant out.

In an afternoon start, I think we should expect a bit of a slugfest between these two under .500 teams.  

Portland Trail Blazers +4.5 (-105) vs. New York Knicks

The Portland Trail Blazers have won five games in a row to get to 19-20 in the 2025-26 season, and they’ve been one of the best home teams in the NBA this season.

Portland is 10-9 straight up at home, which includes an impressive 10-3 against the spread record as a home underdog. In addition to that, the Blazers have won seven games outright as a home dog this season. 

Now, Portland is a 4.5-point underdog against the New York Knicks, who have dropped five of their last six games and are just 3-10 against the spread as road favorites this season. 

New York fell to 7-10 straight up on the road with a loss to Phoenix on Friday, and it’s just 27th in the NBA in defensive rating over its last 10 games. To make matters worse, the Knicks may be without Josh Hart (questionable) once again on Sunday.

Over the last 10 games for these teams, their net ratings are very different. New York – despite holding the No. 2 spot in the East – has a net rating of -5.1 while the Blazers are sitting at +0.2. 

Portland may not win this one outright, but I expect it to hang around on Sunday. 

Oklahoma City Thunder-Phoenix Suns Alt Spread Parlay (-154)

I decided to move these teams from 14.5-point favorites to 6.5-point favorites, as they have very favorable matchups at home. 

Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are an elite home team this season, going 18-2 overall, and they have a great matchup against the Miami Heat on Sunday.

Miami was blown out by the Indiana Pacers – who have the worst record in the NBA – on Saturday, and now they have a quick turnaround against the No. 1 team in the NBA.

The Heat are struggling on the road, going 7-12 straight up, and they’re just 5-5 in their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Thunder have posted an average scoring margin of +14.9 points per game as a home favorite, covering in 11 of 20 games despite constantly being favored by double digits.

With OKC getting healthier – only Isaiah Hartenstein is out for this game amongst their rotation pieces – I think it runs away with this one after Miami looked awful on the road on Saturday. 

Phoenix Suns -6.5

Devin Booker and the Suns are one of the best home teams in the league this season – especially when favored.

Phoenix is 13-5 straight up at home, and it’s gone 8-2 against the spread as a home favorite, posting an average scoring margin of +15.3 in those games. On top of that, the Suns are fifth in the NBA in both defensive and net rating at home.

On Sunday, they take on a Washington Wizards team that is 4-14 straight up on the road and without newly acquired guard Trae Young in this matchup.

Washington is 29th in the NBA in net rating this season (-11.0), and it’s covered the spread in just seven of 18 games as a road dog, posting an average scoring margin of -12.3 points per game in those matchups.

I don’t see the Wizards keeping pace with the Suns on Sunday night. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 28.5 Points (-116)

Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks take on the Denver Nuggets on Sunday night, and I think the two-time MVP is a little undervalued when it comes to his points prop.

Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.2 points per game this season while shooting 65.0 percent from the field and 40.6 percent from beyond the arc. In addition to that, he’s scored 29 or more points in six of eight games since returning from a calf injury.

Giannis is back up to playing around 30 minutes per night, and he’s now taking on a Denver team that is just 26th in the league in defensive rating this season.

I think Giannis may be undervalued after he scored 21 points on just 11 shots in his last game against the Los Angeles Lakers, so I’ll back him to reach his season average on Sunday.

Jalen Johnson OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-131)

Atlanta Hawks star Jalen Johnson has become the face of the franchise now that Trae Young has been dealt to Washington, and I love him as a rebounder on Sunday night against the Golden State Warriors.

Johnson is averaging 10.3 rebounds on 16.5 rebound chances per game this season, and now he takes on a Golden State team that is 18th in rebound percentage and 15th in opponent rebounds per game this season.

The Warriors don’t have a ton of size in their frontcourt, and that sets up well for Johnson to hit the glass at a high rate. 

Johnson has at least 10 boards in 11 of his 17 games since Dec. 1, averaging 10.7 boards per game during that stretch. He’s a steal with this line set at 9.5 on Sunday. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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