Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Johnson, Tyrese Maxey, Pistons-Knicks)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Monday, Jan. 5.

Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson is a great prop target on Monday. / Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

What better way to kick off the week than a loaded night of NBA action?

The two top teams in the Eastern Conference – the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks – face off to open the night, but that’s not the only exciting matchup in this eight-game slate.

Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets take on his former team – the Phoenix Suns – after Devin Booker hit a game-winning 3-pointer to beat the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday night. Plus, the Golden State Warriors take on the suddenly surging Los Angeles Clippers in a West Coast clash to cap off the night. 

There are a ton of bets to consider on Jan. 5, but I’ve narrowed things down to my favorite plays, including a player prop for Atlanta Hawks star Jalen Johnson. 

Sunday’s slate was a rough one, as we’ve gone from a 3-0 sweep on Jan. 1 to an 0-for-3 showing on Jan. 4. 

Here’s a look at the odds and a breakdown for each of Monday’s plays as I seek a bounce-back showing. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 122-92 (+9.44 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1413-1329-27 (+42.60 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Detroit Pistons +2.5 (-112) vs. New York Knicks
• Jalen Johnson OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-142)
• Kon Knueppel OVER 15.5 Points (-125)
• Tyrese Maxey OVER 27.5 Points (-122)
• Ivica Zubac OVER 9.5 Rebounds (+102)

Detroit Pistons +2.5 (-112) vs. New York Knicks

The Pistons are playing the second night of a back-to-back – and may be short-handed – on Monday after knocking off the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday afternoon.

However, I expect them to go all out to beat this Knicks team that knocked Detroit out of the playoffs last season.

The Pistons 12-3 straight up at home this season and have covered the spread in two of their three games as home dogs. The Knicks, on the other hand, are under .500 on the road and are one of the worst teams against the spread on the road, going 3-8 ATS when favored.

Plus, New York has not looked great over its last 10 games, ranking 19th in the NBA in net rating and 26th in defensive rating while posting a 5-5 record. With Josh Hart still out of the lineup, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Knicks struggle again to get stops on the defensive end. 

Even in a back-to-back scenario, I love getting points with the Pistons at home in this clash between the two top teams in the East. 

Jalen Johnson OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-142)

Hawks forward Jalen Johnson has put together an extremely impressive 2025-26 season, averaging 24.0 points, 10.2 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game while shooting 52.6 percent from the field and 37.7 percent from 3.

On Monday, I’m focusing on Johnson’s rebound prop against the Toronto Raptors, who are just 15th in the NBA in rebounding percentage and down starting center Jakob Poeltl in this matchup. 

Johnson is averaging 10.2 boards per game, so this prop is very attainable, and he’s cleared 9.5 rebounds in 10 of his 14 games since the start of December. He did fall short of this line in his last game against Toronto, but I think this is a buy-low spot for the Hawks star.

So far this season, Johnson is averaging 16.4 rebound chances per game, and he’s grabbed double-digit boards in 20 of 33 games overall. He’s a great target at this line on Monday night. 

Kon Knueppel OVER 15.5 Points (-125)

Charlotte Hornets rookie Kon Knueppel is listed as questionable against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday, but I think he’s worth a shot at this discounted number if he’s able to play.

Knueppel is averaging 19.4 points per game this season while shooting 47.9 percent from the field and 42.8 percent from 3-point range. He’s scored at least 16 points in 10 consecutive games and 25 of his 34 games so far this season.

While this is a tough matchup against an OKC team that is No. 1 in the league in defensive rating, Knueppel is taking nearly 14 shots per game and has shown 16 points is much closer to his floor than it is his ceiling.

Usually this prop would be anywhere between 17.5 and 19.5 points depending upon the matchup, so I’m very willing to buy low on the Hornets rookie to come close to his season average on Monday.  

Tyrese Maxey OVER 27.5 Points (-122)

Philadelphia 76ers star guard Tyrese Maxey continues to impress night in and night out, averaging 31.1 points per game while shooting 47.5 percent from the field and 40.4 percent from 3-point range. 

Maxey has scored 28 or more points in four straight and 20 of his 31 games overall this season. Even with Joel Embiid (probable) expected to play in this game, I think Maxey is worth a look with this line set nearly four points below his season average. 

The Denver Nuggets have struggled with Nikola Jokic out in recent games, and they rank 29th in the NBA in defensive rating over their last 10. 

I am worried about this game turning into a blowout and Maxey sitting later on in this matchup, but he also leads the NBA in minutes per game (39.8) and should play a ton in the first three quarters. 

Ivica Zubac OVER 9.5 Rebounds (+102)

Los Angeles Clippers big man Ivica Zubac recently returned from an injury, and he has a very favorable matchup on Monday against a smaller Golden State Warriors team.

Golden State ranks 20th in the NBA in both rebounding percentage and opponent rebounds per game, and that’s a great sign for Zubac to reach 10 or more boards on Monday night.

In his last 10 games against Golden State, Zubac has 10 or more boards in eight of them, picking up at least 11 rebounds in five straight. Even though he may play a few less minutes since he’s returning from an injury, I’d expect the Clippers center to control the glass whenever he’s in the game.

This season, Zubac started slow, but he’s now averaging 11.0 rebounds on 20.2 rebound chances per game. He’s a steal at plus money against Golden State.

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