Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for James Harden, Thunder-Lakers, Ajay Mitchell)

Could another team earn a spot in the Conference Finals on Monday?

The New York Knicks pulled off a sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday afternoon, becoming the first of four teams that will compete for a spot in the NBA Finals in the 2026 postseason.

Now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder are just one win away from completing a sweep of their own when they take on the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 4 on Monday night.

I have a player prop and a side that I’m betting on in that matchup, as the Thunder have dominated the Luka Doncic-less Lakers in this series. Doncic and Jalen Williams both remain out of the lineup for Game 4 with hamstring injuries.

In the Eastern Conference, the Cleveland Cavaliers took one step towards evening their series with the Detroit Pistons on Saturday, pulling out a win at home to move to 5-0 at Rocket Arena in the playoffs. The problem? Cleveland is 0-5 on the road and doesn’t have home-court advantage in this series.

Instead of taking a side in Game 4, I’m fading All-Star guard James Harden in the prop market against Ausar Thompson and the stingy Detroit defense.

Let’s dive into each of the plays for Monday, May 11!

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 290-250 (-4.18 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1581-1486-27 (+28.97 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Ajay Mitchell 20+ Points and Assists (-164)
Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 (-115) vs. Los Angeles Lakers
James Harden UNDER 19.5 Points (-125)

Ajay Mitchell 20+ Points and Assists (-164)

Oklahoma City guard Ajay Mitchell has been a revelation in the 2025-26 season, and his solid play has carried over into the playoffs, especially since Williams went down with a hamstring injury.

Mitchell has started the last five games for OKC, and he's averaging 17.4 points, 4.1 rebounds and 5.0 assists while shooting 44.0 from the field in seven games this postseason. In his five starts, Mitchell has 20 or more points and assists in four of them, and he’s averaging 20.7 points and 6.7 assists per game in this series.

The Lakers do not have a defensive answer for Mitchell, especially since Marcus Smart has been tasked with guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Mitchell has 22, 26 and 34 points and assists so far in this series, and I expect another strong showing from him in Game 4.

Oklahoma City Thunder -10.5 (-115) vs. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have put together some valiant first-half performances in back-to-back games – leading at half in each matchup – but they’ve run out of gas on the offensive end in both games, losing by 18 and 23 points.

Los Angeles is now 0-7 against the Thunder in the 2025-26 season (including four regular season matchups), and it has lost six of those seven games by 18 or more points. So, even with this spread moving two points in OKC’s favor in Game 4, I’m still going to lay the points.

The Thunder have a net rating of plus-18.8 this postseason (No. 2 in the NBA), and they’ve shown that they can handle the Lakers’ early runs in games to then walk them down in the second half.

Los Angeles has competed in this series, but without Doncic, the Lakers don’t have the firepower to beat this Thunder team. I’d be surprised if the Thunder messed around and let this series get to a Game 5.

James Harden UNDER 19.5 Points (-125)

Harden has played in 10 postseason games with the Cavs, and the results have been as wild as you’d expect.

He’s posted four games with 20 or more points (just two since Game 2 against the Toronto Raptors), and he’s also turned the ball over 50 times, averaging 5.0 per game. Harden scored 19 points in Game 3, shooting 8-for-14 from the field and 3-for-7 from deep.

While that seems like a step in the right direction, I’m fading Harden in Game 4 on Monday.

The Cavs star shot just 9-for-28 in the first two games in this series, and he only cleared this line in Game 1 because he got to the free-throw line nine times. In fact, two of the four games where Harden has scored 20 this postseason came with him taking nine or more shots from the charity stripe.

The Pistons have the No. 2 defensive rating in the playoffs this season (they were also No. 2 in defense in the regular season), and I expect them to keep Harden in check on Monday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $100 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google