Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jayson Tatum, Suns-Pacers, Lakers, Heat)

The top four teams in the odds to win the NBA Finals are all in action on Thursday night, highlighting a huge nine-game slate.

Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics are road underdogs against the Oklahoma City Thunder in a potential NBA Finals preview while two of the best teams in the West – the Denver Nuggets and San Antonio Spurs – go head to head earlier in the night.

San Antonio may be down Victor Wembanyama (ankle, questionable), but it is favored at the moment in that Western Conference clash.

There are a ton of ways to bet on the NBA on March 12, and I’m eyeing a prop for Tatum in the marquee Celtics-Thunder battle.

In addition to that, there are three teams that I like to win – and one to cover – as favorites with so many tanking teams in action.

It’s been a strong week so far in Peter’s Points (9-3), and I’m looking to carry the momentum with three picks on Thursday.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 206-162 (+12.00 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1497-1399-27 (+45.16 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Phoenix Suns -8.5 (-112) vs. Indiana Pacers
Jayson Tatum OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-136)
Los Angeles Lakers-Miami Heat Moneyline Parlay (-156)

Phoenix Suns -8.5 (-112) vs. Indiana Pacers

The Phoenix Suns have the second-best against the spread record in the NBA this season, and they are a league-best 10-2 against the spread when favored on the road.

Now, the Suns take on a tanking Indiana Pacers team that has lost 10 games in a row with seven of those losses coming by nine or more points. The three that didn’t all came against other tanking teams in Sacramento, Washington and Dallas.

So, I’m buying the Suns in this matchup, as they’ve jumped up to ninth in the NBA in defensive rating in the 2025-26 season.

Phoenix should be able to shut down Indiana’s offense (dead last in the league in offensive rating), and the Pacers have slipped to just 28-37 against the spread this season.

At this point in the campaign, I’m fading tanking teams every chance I get, especially if the spread is set below 10.

Jayson Tatum OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-136)

Even though Tatum is questionable for Thursday’s matchup, he’s worth a look in the prop market if he does play.

The Celtics star is averaging 19.7 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists in three games so far this season, playing right around 27 minutes per night. He’s shooting just 39.3 percent from the field and 29.0 percent from 3, but Tatum hasn’t shied away from getting his shots up.

He has taken at least 16 field goal attempts and eight or more 3-point attempts in every game this season, including a 14 3-point attempt game against the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday.

Tatum has made three, two and four shots from beyond the arc, and I love this prop for him given his usage from deep.

Oklahoma City has the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA, but it has struggled to defend the 3-ball in the 2025-26 season. The Thunder rank 27th in opponent 3s made per game and 22nd in opponent 3-point percentage.

Tatum’s props still have a little discount since he’s on a minutes restriction, but he’s shown he’s still going to be heavily involved when he’s on the floor. I think he’s a steal at this number, as his 3-point percentage is eventually going to come up from 29.0 percent.

For his career, Tatum is a 36.9 percent shooter from deep.

Los Angeles Lakers-Miami Heat Moneyline Parlay (-156)

Los Angeles Lakers

The Los Angeles Lakers are rolling right now winning three games in a row while improving to 10-2 when Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves play without LeBron James.

James is questionable on Thursday, but I think this is a prime spot to back the Lakers to win – and to cover if you want to go that route – against the Chicago Bulls.

I’m taking the Lakers in a two-pick moneyline parlay with the red-hot Miami Heat, but there is a case for them to cover as well.

L.A. is 15-7 against the spread when favored at home (the fourth-best mark in the NBA), and it is ninth in the league in net rating over its last 10 games (+7.0). The Bulls, on the other hand, have gone in the tank since the trade deadline and are 25th in net rating (-9.1) over their last 15 games.

Chicago has the worst offense in the NBA during that stretch, and that’s going to be a problem against a Lakers team that is eighth overall in offensive rating this season.

The No. 4 seed in the West, the Lakers have pulled off some nice wins over Minnesota and New York recently,and they should make quick work of a Bulls team that is joining many of the tankers across the NBA.

Miami Heat

Miami is in a great spot to win a seventh game in a row on Thursday, as the Milwaukee Bucks are in a world of trouble, falling to 3-7 in their last 10 games.

The Bucks are 5.5 games out of a play-in spot in the Eastern Conference, and it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that they’ll be able to sneak into the play-in field this season.

There are some injury concerns for the Heat tonight – Tyler Herro is questionable while Norman Powell and Andrew Wiggins are out – but Miami is third in net rating, third in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating over its last 10 games.

The Heat are 22-11 at home, and they’ve improved to 13-11 against the spread as home favorites. So, I don’t mind laying the points with them against a Bucks team that has a bottom-10 defense this season.

Milwaukee is just 13-28 against teams that are .500 or better this season, and the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo has not changed their season. I love the Heat to take care of business as they pursue the No. 5 seed in the East.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.