Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Julius Randle, Celtics, Nuggets, Jayson Tatum)

The NBA has taken a back seat to March Madness over the weekend, but a five-game slate on Sunday is a perfect time to jump back into some NBA betting.

The matchup of the night is between the Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves, but there are also a few tanking teams in action that bettors should considering fading:

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Denver Nuggets
Brooklyn Nets vs. Sacramento Kings
Washington Wizards vs. New York Knicks
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Boston Celtics
Toronto Raptors vs. Phoenix Suns

It’s been a great season in Peter’s Points, as we’re entering the home stretch of the regular season at +13.15 units. There’s still a ton of basketball left to play – especially since I’ll be betting on just about every playoff game – but a positive season is certainly in the cards.

On Sunday, I’m targeting Julius Randle and Jayson Tatum in my best bets, so let’s dive into the odds and analysis for each pick!

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 217-170 (+13.15 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1508-1407-27 (+46.31 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Boston Celtics-Denver Nuggets Moneyline Parlay (-167)
Jayson Tatum OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-114)
Julius Randle 20+ Points (-159)

Boston Celtics-Denver Nuggets Moneyline Parlay (-167)

Why not start the day with a two-team moneyline parlay?

Boston Celtics

Boston is eyeing a fifth win in a row on Sunday, and it’s heavily favored with Anthony Edwards (knee) out of the lineup.

The Wolves are 8-5 without Edwards this season, but they’re just 5-5 in their last 10 games and 15-17 against teams that are .500 or better in the 2025-26 season.

So, this is a prime spot to back Boston, which is 24-10 straight up at home. While the C’s are just 14-15 against the spread as home favorites, they’ve posted an average scoring margin of +9.0 points in those games.

Minnesota is just 18th in the NBA in net rating (-0.9) over its last 10 games, making it a tough team to trust without its best player. The Wolves won the first meeting between these teams back in November, but the C’s are a much different team now with Jayson Tatum back in the fold.

I’ll trust Boston to take care of business at home, as the Wolves are just 5-6 against the spread road dogs in the 2025-26 season.

Denver Nuggets

Denver blew out Portland by 54 points the last time these teams played, and it finally has a healthy rotation with Peyton Watson (hamstring) making his return to the lineup on Sunday.

The Nuggets have not been great at home compared to previous seasons, as they’re just 20-13 straight up and 12-13 against the spread when favored. However, the Blazers have struggled as road dogs all season, going 9-11 against the numbers while posting an average scoring margin of -11.3 points per game.

The Blazers have won three games in a row, but I believe this is a sell-high spot with Shaedon Sharpe still out of the lineup. Portland’s offense has been shaky all season (23rd in offensive rating) and now it’s taking on the No. 1 offense in the NBA with all of its weapons back in action.

The Nuggets are also a top-seven team in net rating this season while the Blazers are just 20th (-2.0). While I don’t expect another 50-point blowout, I do think Denver wins comfortably in this matchup.

Jayson Tatum OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-114)

Since returning from an Achilles injury, Jayson Tatum has been up and down shooting the ball for Boston (39.0 percent from the field), but he’s chipped in across the boards to help the C’s go 6-1 in the games he’s played in.

Tatum is averaging 8.6 rebounds per game, and he’s grabbed at least nine boards in three of his last four matchups. The All-NBA forward averaged 8.7 rebounds per game last season, and he hasn’t missed a beat in that aspect of his game since returning.

Tatum’s role is also increasing – he’s played at least 30 minutes in four games in a row – giving him a solid floor in this prop. Minnesota is one of the better rebounding teams in the NBA (ninth in rebound percentage), but this line is set below Tatum’s season average.

I think he’s worth a look after clearing this line in four of his first seven games of the season.

Julius Randle 20+ Points (-159)

A lot has fallen on Julius Randle’s plate for the Minnesota Timberwolves with Anthony Edwards out of the lineup.

In his last three games without Edwards, Randle has scored 32, 21 and 19 points, taking 17, 10 and 16 shots in those games.

Historically, Randle has matched up well with Boston, averaging 24.5 points, 8.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game over his last 10 games against the C’s. He’s scored at least 20 points in eight of those matchups, including two of his three games against Boston as a member of the Wolves.

This season, Randle is averaging 21.2 points on 15.2 shots per game. While he hasn’t shot the 3-ball well (31.4 percent), he’s still made over 48 percent of his attempts from the field. He’s worth a look against a Boston team that lacks frontcourt depth with Nikola Vucevic sidelined.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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