Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Kevin Durant, Nikola Jokic, Pelicans-Bucks)

A wild Tuesday in the NBA featured some massive trades, including James Harden and Darius Garland getting swapped in a deal with the Los Angeles Clippers and Cleveland Cavaliers.

Now, those teams play each other on Wednesday night, although neither guard will be in the lineup.

That’s one of several great matchups on Feb. 4, as the fifth meeting between Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs:

Denver Nuggets vs. New York Knicks
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Toronto Raptors
Boston Celtics vs. Houston Rockets
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Sacramento Kings
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Clippers

I’m eyeing a pair of players for tonight’s action, as well as a spread bet for a team that may be undervalued on the road.

Here’s a full breakdown of every pick for Wednesday, Feb. 4.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 161-121 (+11.71 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1452-1358-27 (+44.86 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Kevin Durant OVER 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-112)
Nikola Jokic 10+ Rebounds (-154)
New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 (-115) vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Kevin Durant OVER 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-112)

Earlier this season, Kevin Durant dropped 26 points on 8-of-11 shooting against Boston, but he ended up falling short of this PRA number.

I don't think that'll be the case on Wednesday, as I'd expect the former scoring champion to be much more aggressive looking for his shot. Durant is averaging 18.1 field goal attempts per game this season, so the 11-shot game against the C's this season was a bit of an anomaly.

Durant also saw his usage increase in January, averaging 27.2 points while taking 20.0 shots per game. He also improved his assist and rebound numbers, averaging 6.2 rebounds and 5.1 dimes per game last month. In 17 games, Durant cleared 34.5 points, rebound and assists 11 times.

Boston plays at the slowest pace in the NBA this season, but it also just allowed a huge game to Cooper Flagg (36 points, nine rebounds, six assists) on Tuesday night.

Durant is averaging 36.2 PRA per game this season, so I think he's a steal with this line set well below his season average.

Nikola Jokic 10+ Rebounds (-154)

This season, Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic is averaging 12.1 rebounds per game, and he’s reached double-digit boards in two of his three games since returning from a knee injury.

Jokic had 15 boards in just under 33 minutes on Tuesday night, and I think he’s worth a look against the New York Knicks if he plays on Wednesday.

The Knicks are fourth in the NBA in rebound percentage, but Jokic only has 11 games this season where he failed to reach 10 rebounds. The three-time league MVP is averaging 19.4 rebound chances per game, and he’s been able to get to this number even when he’s on a minutes restriction.

I think he’s a solid value on Wednesday.

New Orleans Pelicans -4.5 (-115) vs. Milwaukee Bucks

The New Orleans Pelicans have just 13 wins this season, but they are favored on the road against the Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Milwaukee Bucks, who are playing the second night of a back-to-back.

The Bucks blew out a short-handed Chicago Bulls team on Tuesday night, but they are just 4-14 when Giannis doesn’t play this season.

As bad as the Pelicans have been in the 2025-26 campaign, they are 11-12 straight up against teams that are under .500. So, New Orleans can certainly compete with teams that are struggling, and the Bucks fit that bill.

Milwaukee is just 2-8 in its last 10 games and ranks 29th in the NBA in net rating (-11.8) during that stretch. New Orleans is 22nd in net rating (-2.8) over that same stretch.

With Milwaukee on a back-to-back and potentially making a move ahead of the deadline, I love New Orleans to win and cover on Wednesday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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