Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Knicks vs. Cavs Game 3, Donovan Mitchell)

Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks are just two wins away from the NBA Finals heading into Game 3 on Saturday night against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

The Cavs’ had a real chance to steal Game 1, as they led by 22 points with around eight minutes to go in regulation. Brunson (38 points in Game 1) keyed a massive comeback for New York, which outscored Cleveland 44-11 the rest of the way to secure a win – and a shocking cover as a 7.5-point favorite.

Game 2 was a little different, but it still featured a huge run by the Knicks. New York led by four at the half, but an 18-0 run in the third quarter helped the Knicks pull away for their ninth straight playoff win.

The Knicks have the No. 1 net rating in the playoffs, yet they’re underdogs on the road in Game 3.

Cleveland has only lost one home game (Game 6 against Detroit) in the playoffs, and it has the No. 4 offensive rating in the NBA postseason at home. So, Donovan Mitchell and company won’t be going quietly on Saturday night.

I’m eyeing two plays for Saturday’s action, as I’m looking to bounce back after Brunson came one point shy of hitting a +113 parlay for us in Game 2.

Here’s a breakdown of each of the plays for Saturday, including a prop for Mitchell after his 26-point showing in Game 2.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 309-265 (-3.96 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1600-1501-27 (+29.18 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

New York Knicks +2.5 (-110) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Donovan Mitchell OVER 27.5 Points (-112)

New York Knicks +2.5 (-110) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

The Knicks’ against the spread record on the road in the regular season wasn’t exactly impressive, especially since they finished just a few games over .500 overall.

In the playoffs, things have been a lot different.

New York is 4-1 on the road in the postseason, posting the best offensive, defensive and net rating of any playoff team. On top of that, the Knicks now have the best point differential over the first 12 games of any playoff run and are No. 1 in net rating overall this postseason.

Best point differential in the first 12 games in a single playoffs

'26 Knicks: +221
'17 Warriors: +196
'71 Bucks: +183
'87 Lakers: +180
'25 Thunder: +168 pic.twitter.com/48u0Xlfqwf
— Underdog (@Underdog) May 22, 2026

So, I don’t mind taking the points with New York, even though the Cavs have been a much better team at home (6-1) in the postseason. Cleveland has scored just 197 points in this series, posting an offensive rating of 100.0 in the process. Cleveland’s offensive rating is up over 117.0 at home, but I’m not sold on it producing at that level against New York.

New York has gone from the No. 7 defense in the league in the regular season to the No. 2 defense in the playoffs, and it has overpowered the Cavs with massive second-half runs in each of the first two games in this series.

Oh, and the Knicks’ two losses this postseason? They’re both by one point.

I wouldn’t be shocked if New York pulled off the upset, and I’ll gladly take the points since Cleveland has a net rating of just plus-4.3 at home this postseason despite winning six of seven games.

Donovan Mitchell OVER 27.5 Points (-112)

Donovan Mitchell has played well for Cleveland in this series, scoring 29 points in Game 1 and 26 points in Game 2 despite the team losing both games.

Mitchell is averaging 30.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.5 assists in 38 home playoff games in his career, and he has several games with 28 or more points at home in this playoff run. In fact, Mitchell is averaging 28.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists in seven home games, scoring at least 30 points in four of them.

So, I don’t mind taking a shot on him with the Cavs’ season on the line in Game 3. Mitchell has 41 shot attempts already in this series, and he’s taken at least 16 shots in every single playoff game, including 14 games (out of 16) with 18 or more attempts.

That gives him a really solid floor when it comes to any scoring prop, and I expect him to look for his offense early and often to help Cleveland dig back into this series.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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