Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Kon Knueppel, Timberwolves-Clippers)

A 10-game NBA slate features some intriguing battles between playoff-caliber teams on Thursday, and I’m eyeing two of those games in the Western Conference in today’s Peter’s Points.

First, the Los Angeles Lakers hit the road to play the Devin Booker-less Phoenix Suns in a game that could mean a lot in the race for the No. 6 seed in the West. L.A. is a road favorite, but I’m actually looking to a team prop for my favorite play in that matchup.

Later in the night, Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers look to move to 2-0 against the Minnesota Timberwolves this month, but oddsmakers have set them as home dogs. There’s an interesting trend when it comes to the total that has caught my eye on Thursday.

Plus, as always, I have my favorite player prop pick for the night’s action.

Can we have a bounce-back showing on Feb. 26?

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 180-148 (+5.57 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1471-1385-27 (+38.72 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Phoenix Suns UNDER 107.5 Points (-105)
Kon Knueppel OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-164)
Minnesota Timberwolves-Los Angeles Clippers OVER 225.5 (-110)

Phoenix Suns UNDER 107.5 Points (-105)

The Lakers aren't a good defensive team this season, but they may not matter against the short-handed Suns on Thursday.

Phoenix is averaging just 103.2 points per game when Booker is out of the lineup this season, and things have gotten much worse in their last two matchups with both Booker and Dillon Brooks out.

The Suns scored just 77 points on Sunday in a loss to Portland, and they followed that up with an 81-point showing in a loss to Boston on Tuesday. The Suns have scored less than 100 points in six of the games Booker has missed this season, shooting just 42.5 percent from the field overall.

They simply lack shot creation without Booker or Brooks, and I think this line is inflated a little too much because of the Lakers' defensive struggles in the 2025-26 season. L.A. has looked a little better on that end as of late, allowing 111 points to Boston's No. 2 offense on Sunday and just 110 points to the Orlando Magic on Tuesday.

I think it can hold the Suns under this line on Thursday night.

Kon Knueppel OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-164)

Charlotte Hornets rookie Kon Knueppel is rising in the odds to win the NBA’s Rookie of the Year award this season, and I love him at this discounted 3-point prop on Thursday night.

Knueppel has faced the Indiana Pacers twice this season, knocking down five and two 3-pointers in those matchups. On paper, this is a tough game, as the Pacers are first in the NBA in opponent 3s made per game and second in opponent 3-point percentage.

However, Indy has a loaded injury report on Thursday and allowed 135 points to the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday night. So, I wouldn’t be shocked if the defense falls off a bit in this game.

Knueppel is shooting 43.6 percent from deep on eight attempts per game this season, averaging well over three made 3-pointers per night. On top of that, he’s cleared 2.5 3-pointers in all but one game this month, shooting 47.6 percent from 3 on 9.1 attempts per game.

At that volume, the rookie is a must bet on Thursday night, even against a tough 3-point defense.

Minnesota Timberwolves-Los Angeles Clippers OVER 225.5 (-110)

The Clippers smoked the Timberwolves earlier this month, scoring 115 points in that matchup, and I think we could see a high-scoring game at Intuit Dome on Thursday night.

Minnesota’s defense has struggled as of late, ranking 23rd in the league in defensive rating over its last 10 games. During that same stretch, the Wolves have been an offensive juggernaut, posting the No. 5 offensive rating in the league.

While the defense has taken a step back, the Wolves are in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating this season, so they should be able to score against this Clippers team.

L.A. has not been a high-scoring team this season (27th in points per game), but the Wolves are third, averaging 119.6 points per night. Combined, these teams average over 231 points per game this season.

So, I don’t mind the OVER in this matchup, especially because of an interesting road trend for the Wolves.

In 28 road games this season, the Wolves have hit the OVER 19 times. Their defensive rating goes from No. 10 overall to No. 24 on the road while their offense is the second-best in the league.

That should lead to a high-scoring game in this Western Conference clash on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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