Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Lakers-Rockets, Jayson Tatum, Darius Garland)

March Madness is set to take over the basketball world this week, but it’s the NBA that has centerstage on Monday, March 16 with some great matchups.

The eight-game slate on Monday features the Los Angeles Lakers (winners of five in a row) taking on the Houston Rockets and the Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks putting lengthy winning streaks to the test in a head-to-head battle.

Plus, the last matchup of the night features a potential first-round playoff matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Clippers, though Kawhi Leonard (doubtful) is expected to miss that game.

Still, I have a player prop for a Clippers guard that should step up in Leonard’s place, as well as my favorite upset pick in the NBA on Monday.

Here’s a breakdown of each bet – and the latest odds – for Monday, March 16.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 209-164 (+12.37 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1500-1401-27 (+45.52 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline (+120) vs. Houston Rockets
Darius Garland OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-135)
Jayson Tatum OVER 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (-139)
Phoenix Suns-Boston Celtics UNDER 213.5 (-105)

Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline (+120) vs. Houston Rockets

Luka Doncic and the Lakers have won five games in a row, and they’ve gotten hot at the right ime to jump into the No. 3 spot in the Western Conference standings.

Over their last 10 games, the Lakers are fourth in the NBA in net rating, first in offensive rating and ninth in defensive rating – a major step forward from where they’ve been for most of the 2025-26 season.

Meanwhile, Houston may be short-handed on Monday with Alperen Sengun (back) listed as questionable after he missed Friday’s win over the New Orleans Pelicans. Losing Sengun would be a major blow to a Houston offense that is just 15th in the league over its last 10 games and is now 10th for the 2025-26 season.

While the Rockets have been elite at home (23-8) this season, they’re just 12-18 against the spread as home favorites – the third-worst mark in the NBA.

I think this is a prime spot for the Lakers to win outright, as their offense is finally reaching its full potential with Doncic and Austin Reaves both healthy for an extended period of time.

Darius Garland OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-135)

The Los Clippers are set to be without Kawhi Leonard (ankle, doubtful) on Monday, which should set up a bigger role for guard Darius Garland.

Since coming to the Clippers, Garland has been awesome, averaging 19.0 points and 6.0 assists per game (in six games) while shooting 46.8 percent from beyond the arc. Garland is taking 7.8 3-pointers per game as a Clipper, and he’s made three or more shots from deep in four straight games.

All of those games happen to be starts for the two-time All-Star, and he’s taken at least eight 3-pointers in each one. I think Garland is a steal at this number, as the Spurs are in the middle of the pack in 3-point defense (12th in opponent 3s made and opponent 3-point percentage) this season.

For the season, Garland has bumped his 3-point percentage to 38.4 percent – right around his career average of 38.7 percent.

Jayson Tatum OVER 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (-139)

Boston Celtics star Jayson Tatum has played in four games since returning from a ruptured Achilles, and he’s actually looked pretty close to his usual self.

Tatum is averaging 19.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, but his shot is still coming along, as he’s just 40.0 percent from the field and 27.5 percent from 3. Tatum has 12 or more rebounds and assists in two of his four games, tallying 19 in his debut and 21 in his last game against the Washington Wizards.

I think this line is a little low for the C’s star, as Tatum has shown a desire to defer to Jaylen Brown and others on offense. Plus, just last season Tatum averaged 8.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game.

In his four games this season, the All-NBA forward is averaging 12.5 rebound chances and 9.3 potential assists per game. That gives him a terrific floor when it comes to this prop against Phoenix.

Since Tatum’s shooting has been up and down, I’ll back him to stuff the stat sheet on Monday.

Phoenix Suns-Boston Celtics UNDER 213.5 (-105)

I’m sticking with the Boston-Phoenix matchup for a play on the total as well on Monday.

These are two of the best UNDER teams in the NBA, as Boston has hit the UNDER an NBA-best 65.7 percent of the time this season while the Suns are fourth in UNDER percentage (58.2%).

The style of play for both of these teams is the reason why they play so many low-scoring games, even though Boston has one of the best offenses in the NBA. The C’s rank dead last in the league in pace this season, and they also defend at a high level.

Boston is fifth in the league in defensive rating and allows the fewest points per game (107.0) in the NBA.

Phoenix fits right into Boston’s slow play style, as it ranks 25th in the league in pace and sixth in opponent points per game (111.2). The Suns are also ninth in the league in defensive rating.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game finish in the low 200s, as Boston has fallen short of 213.5 points in nine of 12 games since the All-Star break.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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