Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Lauri Markkanen, 76ers-Lakers, Warriors)

It’s trade deadline day in the NBA, and several major deals have already been completed with the Giannis Antetokounmpo domino still yet to fall.

While today is a huge day for player movement in the NBA, there is also an intriguing eight-game slate to dive into, featuring some great matchups such as the Los Angeles Lakers-Philadelphia 76ers game at 10 p.m. EST.

So, while there may be some more players on the move, I’ve still found three bets that I love for Thursday’s action, including a player prop for Utah Jazz star Lauri Markkanen. The Jazz were active at the deadline adding Jaren Jackson Jr. to their core of Markkanen and Keyonte George, but both JJJ and George are out tonight against the Atlanta Hawks.

Here’s my breakdown of that prop pick, and two more plays, for Thursday, Feb. 5.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 162-123 (+10.35 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1453-1360-27 (+43.51 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Lauri Markkanen 25+ Points (-127)
Golden State Warriors Team Total UNDER 104.5 (-112)
Philadelphia 76ers-Los Angeles Lakers OVER 233.5 (-116)

Lauri Markkanen 25+ Points (-127)

The Hawks have improved their defense in recent weeks, moving up to 15th in the league in defensive rating, but they are still 23rd in opponent points per game (118.1).

The last time these teams played, Utah scored 122 points, and Markkanen had a massive game, scoring 40 points on 15-of-25 shooting from the field. This season, the star forward is averaging 27.4 points per game while shooting 47.7 percent from the field and 35.7 percent from beyond the arc.

Markkanen is taking a career-high 19.5 shots per game, and that should only increase with both George and Jackson out of the lineup. The Jazz forward has 19 and 23 shot attempts in his last two games, scoring 27 points in each of them.

I think this line is a steal for Markkanen, as it's over two points below his season average.

Golden State Warriors Team Total UNDER 104.5 (-112)

The Golden State Warriors have struggled without Steph Curry all season long, and I expect that to continue on Thursday night against a strong Phoenix Suns defense.

The Suns are No. 7 in the NBA in defensive rating this season, and they allow the fifth-fewest points per game in the NBA (111.6). On top of that, the Suns are even better at home, allowing just 108 points per game -- the third-best mark in the NBA.

So, this is going to be a struggle for a Warriors' offense that has scored less than 100 points in five of the last six games that Curry has missed. In fact, Golden State has 104 or fewer points in eight of the 12 games that the star guard has sat out, and multiple games where it has cleared this total have come with Jimmy Butler in the lineup.

With both Butler and Curry out, the Warriors simply don't have the offensive firepower to clear this total against an elite defense.

Philadelphia 76ers-Los Angeles Lakers OVER 233.5 (-116)

The Lakers and 76ers are two of the best OVER teams in the NBA this season:

The OVER has hit in 28 of the Lakers’ 49 games.
The OVER has hit in 26 of the Sixers’ 50 games.
At home, the Lakers have hit the OVER in 15 of their 20 games.

Los Angeles enters this game at No. 24 in the NBA in defensive rating, and it ranks 18th in opponent points per game. So, Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid could lead this Philly team to a strong showing on the road.

These teams are No. 12 (Philly) and No. 13 (L.A.) in points per game, combining to average 233.1 points per night.

The Lakers are a much better offensive team at home, posting the No. 3 offensive rating in the league when they’re at Crypto.com Arena (119.7) while averaging 120.1 points per game.

If that keeps up – and it should against a Philly defense that is 14th in defensive rating – I think L.A. builds its league-best OVER record at home.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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