Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Lauri Markkanen, Rockets, Pistons)

The Winter Olympics are behind us, but the race to the NBA Playoffs is now in full swing, and two title contenders headline a three-game slate on Monday night.

Sunday’s picks didn’t pan out too well, although a three-team parlay between the New York Knicks, Charlotte Hornets and Boston Celtics cashed, giving us a win on an otherwise disappointing day.

The bright side?

Monday is a great opportunity to bounce back even though it’s a smaller slate, as it includes a marquee matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and the Detroit Pistons

Monday, Feb 23 NBA Games

San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons
Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets

There are a few tanking teams (Utah, Memphis and Sacramento) that are in action tonight, but I have a way to navigate these games for bettors that are still interested in them.

Plus, there is a bet for the Spurs-Pistons matchup that I love to kick off the night.

Here’s a breakdown of each of today’s picks, their latest odds and why I think they’ll get us off to a solid start in the final week of February.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 177-142 (+9.35 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1468-1379-27 (+42.50 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Lauri Markkanen OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-137)
Ty Jerome 18+ Points (-127)
Two-Team Alternate Line Parlay (-156)

Lauri Markkanen OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-137)

This season, Utah star Lauri Markkanen has shot the ball well from beyond the arc, knocking down 36.3 percent of his attempts while taking 7.7 per game.

At some point, his numbers are going to fall if the Jazz continue to limit his minutes – they’ve sat him in fourth quarters this month while also playing him less than 30 minutes per game – but that hasn’t been the case so far this month.

Markkanen has made two or more 3-pointers in five of his six appearances, including three games with at least three shots made from beyond the arc. The Jazz forward is still getting up a ton of attempts, taking 6.5 per game during this stretch.

That makes him an intriguing target at this discounted number on Monday, even though the Rockets rank in the top 10 in the NBA in both opponent 3-pointers made per game and opponent 3-point percentage.

I expect the Jazz star to knock down at least two shots from deep, something he’s done in 35 of his 41 games in the 2025-26 campaign.

Ty Jerome 18+ Points (-127)

The Memphis Grizzlies have a ton of players out on Monday night, including Ja Morant, Santi Aldama, Cedric Coward, Zach Edey and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, meaning Ty Jerome is going to have a massive role in the offense.

Since returning from injury, Jerome has appeared in seven games, averaging 19.3 points per game while shooting 50.6 percent from the field and 39.5 percent from 3. He’s taking on a Sacramento team that ranks in the bottom three of the NBA in both defensive rating and opponent points per game.

So, I’m buying Jerome to have a big game scoring the ball.

While the Grizzlies guard is playing just 20.6 minutes per game, he’s taking 12.4 shots and 5.0 free throws, giving him a really solid floor when it comes to this prop. Jerome has picked up at least 19 points in five of his seven games in the 2025-26 campaign.

He’s worth a look against one of the worst defenses in the NBA.

Two-Team Alternate Line Parlay (-156)

Houston Rockets -5.5
Detroit Pistons +7.5

I opted to move the Rockets down from 13.5-point favorites to 5.5-point favorites and Detroit from a 1.5-point favorite to a 7.5-point underdog on Monday night.

Houston Rockets -5.5

The Rockets are heavily favored on Monday against a Utah team that is clearly tanking at the moment, limiting Lauri Markkanen’s minutes while also sitting him and other key players in the fourth quarter of recent games.

So, I’m going to back the Rockets to pick up a much-needed win on Monday after they blew an 18-point lead to the New York Knicks in the fourth quarter on Saturday.

The Rockets are still sixth in the NBA in both net rating and defensive rating, and that should help them make up for the fact that they have the No. 25 offense in the league over their last 15 games.

On the bright side for Houston’s offense, Utah is dead last in the NBA in defensive rating and opponent points per game. So, it’s going to be tough for the Jazz to hang around in this game, especially if Markkanen doesn’t play 30-plus minutes.

The Jazz are just 7-21 overall on the road and have posted an average scoring margin of -10.2 points when they’re set as road underdogs. Houston should pick up an easy win on Monday night.

Detroit Pistons +7.5

The Pistons are favored at home in this matchup, and I think they’re in a great spot to at least hang around – even with Isaiah Stewart still suspended.

The Spurs are one of the best teams in the NBA this season, but Detroit has been better, outranking San Antonio in net rating and defensive rating.

At home, the Pistons are an impressive 21-16, and they enter this game on a five-game winning streak. Now, the Spurs have won eight games in a row themselves, but the Pistons have stepped up against elite competition, going 18-6 against teams that are .500 or better this season.

I think they have the defensive infrastructure to compete with this Spurs team, and Cade Cunningham has been on a tear as of late, scoring 33, 28 and 42 points in three of his last four games.

For the sake of this parlay, I love moving the Pistons to two-possession underdogs, as they have an average scoring margin of +11.2 points at home this season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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