Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for LeBron James, Pistons-Cavs, Jalen Duren)

Saturday’s NBA playoff games feature an afternoon matchup and a standalone primetime game or Game 3 of the conference semifinals.

The No. 1-seeded Detroit Pistons are up 2-0 on the Cleveland Cavaliers, but they find themselves as underdogs in Game 3 on Saturday afternoon. Despite that, I’m targeting a player prop and a total for this matchup – and if you’ve been following these plays, you probably know where I’m leaning.

SI answers is our AI answer engine trained on human-created content.

Saturday night’s showdown between the Los Angeles Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder has a ton at stake as the Lakers look to keep their season alive. OKC has back-to-back 18-point wins to take a 2-0 series lead, but the Lakers hung around in the first half on Thursday night before a rough offensive third quarter ultimately doomed them.

Can L.A. steal one as a home underdog?

I’m targeting a player prop for superstar LeBron James in Game 3, as he’s consistently shown up for the Lakers during this playoff run.

Let’s take a look at the odds and analysis behind each of Saturday’s NBA Best Bets!

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 287-246 (-2.45 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1578-1484-27 (+30.70 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Jalen Duren UNDER 25.5 Points and Rebounds (-115)
LeBron James 20+ Points (-157)
Detroit Pistons-Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 211.5 (-110)

Jalen Duren UNDER 25.5 Points and Rebounds (-115)

Pistons big man Jalen Duren has not played at the same level in the playoffs as he did during the regular season, averaging just 10.3 points and 9.8 rebounds per game. Duren is taking just 7.9 shots per game, which really limits his ceiling when it comes to this prop.

The All-Star big man has put up 23 and 18 points and rebounds in his first two games of this series, and he only has one game (Game 7 against Orlando) where he cleared 25.5 points and rebounds.

Since the Cavs have multiple bigs in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley to deal with Duren in the paint, I don’t see him clearly this total, especially with his lack of shot attempts in the postseason.

LeBron James 20+ Points (-157)

James continues to hold off “Father Time,” dropping 20 or more points in six of his eight playoff games, including four in a row, heading into Game 3 on Saturday night.

The Lakers star has been able to dominate some of OKC’s smaller wing defenders in the post, and he’s averaging 25.0 points per game while shooting 60 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3 in this series.

So, I think it’s a discount to get him to score 20 or more points at home on Saturday. Austin Reaves’ presence has given James the ability to play off the ball with less defensive attention, and the star forward took advantage with several deep post-up catches in Game 2.

James only has two games this postseason where he failed to score 20 points – Game 1 against Houston when he had 19 and Game 4 against Houston when he scored 10 on just nine shots in a blowout loss.

I think this is a pretty safe play on Saturday night.

Detroit Pistons-Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 211.5 (-110)

For the third game in a row, I’m taking the UNDER in the Cavs-Pistons series.

Cleveland’s offense has not been able to get going in this series, scoring 101 points in Game 1 and just 97 points in Game 2, and the Pistons are now No. 2 amongst playoff teams in defensive rating (103.0).

These teams are also playing at a really slow pace (92.5) over the first two games of this series. Overall, they’re 12th (Detroit) and ninth (Cleveland) in pace so far this postseason.

The Pistons don’t have a great offense, and I don't expect them to shoot the 3-ball as well as they have to open this series. As for Cleveland, this has become the status quo in the second round, only this time it’s James Harden and Evan Mobley failing to live up to their billing as scorers.

Detroit has hit the UNDER in 55.8 percent of its road games while the Cavs are 25-20 to the UNDER at home. I think this series continues to be played at a pretty slow pace, after these squads combined for 212 and 204 points in Games 1 and 2.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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