Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Hornets, Suns)

It’s time to double check the multiview setting on NBA League Pass, as there are 14 games on Wednesday night as the NBA inches closer to this weekend’s All-Star break.

There are still three games set for Thursday, but Wednesday’s action features a ton of great games, including a primetime matchup between the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers.

I’m eyeing a prop pick in that matchup, and it’s one of three props to consider for Feb. 11.

Two former MVPs – Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic – highlight those player prop picks, and there are six different games that I’m targeting in this edition of Peter’s Points.

So, let’s dive into the odds and my breakdown for each of these plays on Wednesday night.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 168-130 (+8.24 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1459-1367-27 (+41.39 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple-Double (-122)
Golden State Warriors Team Total UNDER 107.5 (-120)
Joel Embiid OVER 27.5 Points (-121)
Anfernee Simons 3+ 3-Pointers Made (-179)
Charlotte Hornets-Phoenix Suns Parlay (-140)

Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple-Double (-122)

This pick started with the fact that I really love Jokic's assist prop against this Memphis defense, but taking him to get 10 dimes (-164) isn't nearly as good of a price as getting him to record a fourth triple-double in a row (-137) on Wednesday.

This season, Jokic has 19 triple-doubles in 38 games, and he's scored at least 10 points in every game. So, we're really only worried about his rebound and assist props on Wednesday.

Memphis ranks 19th in the NBA in opponent assists per game and 23rd in opponent rebounds per game heading into this matchup. The Grizzlies gutted their roster at the deadline, trading away Jaren Jackson Jr., and they're without big men like Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke and Santi Aldama on Wednesday.

Jokic should have a field day against this Memphis team that is 29th in defensive rating and 25th in rebound percentage over its last 10 games. With the Nuggets needing a win, I'd expect Jokic to clear 30 minutes for the fifth game in a row, giving him a chance to stuff the stat sheet at home.

Over this six-game stretch since he returned, Jokic is averaging an insane 24.2 points, 12.7 rebounds and 9.2 assists per game despite being on a minutes restriction. Overall, he’s averaging a triple-double in the 2025-26 campaign.

Golden State Warriors Team Total UNDER 107.5 (-120)

We’re going back to the well on Wednesday with another fade of the Warriors’ offense, this time against the San Antonio Spurs!

The Warriors are averaging just 103.4 points per game in the 15 games that Steph Curry has missed this season, and they've been even worse since Jimmy Butler (torn ACL) went down.

Golden State has scored less than 100 points in four of the last six games that Curry has missed, failing to clear this prop in five of the last six games without him. On top of that, the Warriors have under 107.5 points in 10 of the 15 games that Curry has been sidelined this season.

San Antonio is one of the best defenses in the NBA this season, ranking third in defensive rating and fifth in opponent points per game (111.4). The Spurs held Golden State to 109 points in their last meeting even with Curry in action.

Golden State has just two games (against Chicago and Memphis) that it has scored over 101 points without Steph since Dec. 4. Those two teams are 27th (Chicago) and 22nd (Memphis) in points allowed per game this season.

I don't see the Warriors having a strong offensive game tonight, especially with De'Anthony Melton listed as questionable and Kristaps Porzingis already ruled out. The Warriors simply are running out of options to score at this point in the regular season.

Joel Embiid OVER 27.5 Points (-121)

Joel Embiid is listed as questionable on Wednesday night, but I think he’s a great bet against the New York Knicks if he suits up.

Embiid torched the Knicks for 38 points on 13-of-21 shooting in their last meeting, and now he gets this New York team that is playing the second night of a back-to-back after losing in overtime to Indiana on Tuesday.

That sets up well for the Sixers star, who has scored 28 or more points in nine of his last 10 appearances. Since Jan. 1, Embiid is averaging 29.9 points per game (across 17 games) while shooting 53.5 percent from the field and 39.7 percent from 3.

As his efficiency continues to improve, Embiid is a must-bet to clear his points prop.

Anfernee Simons 3+ 3-Pointers Made (-179)

A revenge game for Chicago Bulls guard Anfernee Simons?

Simons was traded to Chicago by the Boston Celtics at the trade deadline, and now these teams face off with Boston set as a massive favorite on Wednesday.

I love Simons’ 3-point prop in this matchup, as the Bulls are down several key players, including guards Josh Giddey and Tre Jones (both doubtful) in this matchup.

Since being traded, Simons has played in three games with Chicago and has attempted 13, 10 and nine 3-pointers in those matchups, making six, three and two. He’s shooting just 34.4 percent from deep with Chicago, but he’s knocked down 39.1 percent of his 3s overall this season.

Now, Simons takes on a Boston defense that has struggled to defend the 3 this season, ranking 25th in opponent 3-pointers made and 18th in opponent 3-point percentage.

I’ve moved this line down from 3.5 to 3, and I think Simons is a great bet on volume alone tonight.

Charlotte Hornets-Phoenix Suns Parlay (-140)

I decided to move the lines on a few teams that I like for a safer parlay on Wednesday:

Charlotte Hornets +5.5 (-404)

The Hornets are favored at home for the eighth time this season against an Atlanta Hawks team that they beat by seven (on the road) back on Feb. 7.

Charlotte had a nine-game winning streak snapped by Detroit on Monday, but it has the fourth-best net rating (+7.9) in the NBA over its last 15 games, going 11-4 during that stretch. Meanwhile, the Hawks are 23rd in net rating (-3.9) in their last 15 games, going 7-8.

Atlanta is just 12-10 straight up against teams that are under .500 this season, and it could be without star forward Jalen Johnson (knee, questionable) after he missed Monday’s loss to Minnesota.

At this alternate line, I think Charlotte is a very safe bet at home.

Phoenix Suns +13.5 (-268)

The Suns are coming off a win against Dallas on Tuesday night, and they’re set as home dogs on the second night of a back-to-back against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

OKC is just 13-12 against the spread as a road favorite this season, and it won’t have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal strain) on Wednesday.

I think that puts Phoenix in a good position to cover the spread, especially since it is 5-3 against the number on the second night of a back-to-back and 8-2 as a home underdog.

The Thunder had a blowout win in the NBA Cup over the Suns, but star guard Devin Booker missed that game.

In the other two matchups between these teams, they were both decided by four or fewer points, with the Suns winning one of them.

OKC has cooled off after an insane start to the season, and I think the Suns are more than capable of hanging around at home, especially since they have one of the 10-best defenses in the NBA and are sixth in home net rating.

For this parlay, I’ve given Phoenix six more points of cushion to cover tonight.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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