Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic, Magic-Warriors, Trey Murphy III)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Monday, Dec. 22.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is a great prop target on Monday. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Christmas is coming, and a loaded week in the NBA kicks off on Monday with a massive seven game slate, featuring a couple of great matchups in the late slate.

Can we build on a 2-1 showing from Sunday’s action? 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves when they take on the Memphis Grizzlies on Peacock, while the Golden State Warriors host the Orlando Magic in a battle between two potential playoff teams. 

We’re closing in on 200 total bets this season in our race to 600 bets, and before Christmas Day’s action, I have a bunch of plays on Monday night. I’ll be back again for the Christmas slate, where I’ll have picks on every single game. 

Tonight, I’m eyeing plays for Nikola Jokic, the Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors and much more. 

Here’s a full breakdown, including the latest odds, for each of these bets on Dec. 22. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 104-80 (+6.27 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1395-1317-27 (+39.42 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Denver Nuggets-Golden State Warriors Moneyline Parlay (-164)
• Charlotte Hornets +9.5 (-115) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
• Trey Murphy III OVER 18.5 Points (-120)
• Nikola Jokic OVER 10.5 Assists (-127)

Denver Nuggets-Golden State Warriors Moneyline Parlay (-164)

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets are just 8-5 in the 2025-26 season at home, but they have a great matchup against a Utah Jazz team that is 3-8 on the road and potentially down Lauri Markkanen (questionable) on Monday night.

Utah has a road net rating of -12.6, which is the second-worst mark in the NBA this season. 

Meanwhile, Denver is still 7-6 against the spread at home this season, winning those games by an average margin of +7.2 points per game. That may not seem like enough to cover in this spot, but the Utah defense (dead last in defensive rating) is going to be hopeless against a Denver offense that is No. 1 in the league in offensive rating. 

After losing to the Houston Rockets in their last game, I think the Nuggets bounce back in a big way on Monday night. 

Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors are under .500 in the 2025-26 season, but they are 8-4 straight up at home, going 6-6 against the spread with a +6.8 scoring margin in those matchups.

Golden State is relatively healthy for this game, as Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and Steph Curry are all off the injury report, a major advantage over a banged-up Orlando squad.

The Magic have listed Jalen Suggs as doubtful and Franz Wagner as out for this game, leaving them extremely short-handed heading into this road matchup. Overall, the Magic are just 6-7 straight up and against the spread on the road this season.

The Magic are just 17th in the league in offensive rating, and now they have to take on the Golden State defense (fifth in defensive rating) with two starters likely out. 

The Warriors have been a tough team to bet on this season because of Curry’s injuries and their constant road struggles, but I like Golden State on full rest against this Orlando team.

Charlotte Hornets +9.5 (-115) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

How can anyone trust the Cleveland Cavaliers to win by 10 or more points?

The Cavs are an NBA-worst 8-21 against the spread this season, and they’re just 4-13 against the spread at home. With Evan Mobley still out of the lineup., Cleveland does not deserve to be a 9.5-point favorite against the Charlotte Hornets, who should have LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller in action on Monday.

The Hornets are playing better over their last 10 games, winning five of those matchups outright while posting a net rating of -1.4. Charlotte hasn’t been dominant against the spread on the road (6-8), but they did beat the Cavs by eight in overtime in Cleveland earlier this month.

The Cavs have a net rating of -2.8 over their last 10 games, and they don’t deserve to be favored by this much with Mobley sidelined. 

I’ll take the points on Monday. 

Trey Murphy III OVER 18.5 Points (-120)

New Orleans Pelicans star Trey Murphy III may be undervalued against a Dallas Mavericks team that he dropped 25 points against earlier this season.

Murphy is averaging 21.2 points per game this season while shooting 49.9 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from 3-point range. While he only took eight shots in his last game, the Pelicans star is averaging 14.9 shots per game overall.

Dallas is eighth in the NBA in defensive rating this season, but Murphy has scored 19 or more points in seven of his eight games this month (averaging 24.6 points per game) and 19 of his 27 appearances overall.

I think this line is way too low for one of New Orleans’ go-to options scoring the ball this season. 

Nikola Jokic OVER 10.5 Assists (-127)

Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic is averaging 10.7 assists per game heading into Monday’s matchup with the Jazz, and he’s in a great spot to clear that average. 

The Jazz are dead last in the NBA in defensive rating and dead last in opponent assists per game this season, allowing 29.6 opponent assists per night. 

Jokic is averaging a whopping 18.0 potential assists per game this season, so he certainly can reach 11 or more dimes with relative ease. The Nuggets have won six games in a row against the Jazz dating back to the 2023-24 season, and I think Jokic is in line for a major triple-double on Monday. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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