Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic, Nuggets-Warriors, Andrew Nembhard)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the two matchups in the NBA on Thursday, Oct. 23.

Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic is a great prop target on Thursday. / Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

The final two teams that have yet to play their season opener – the Denver Nuggets and Indiana Pacers – are in action on Thursday night in a two-game NBA slate. 

Indiana opens the action with an NBA Finals rematch against the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are coming off a wild double-overtime win against the Houston Rockets on Tuesday. OKC was without multiple rotation players in that game in Jalen Williams and Isaiah Joe, but oddsmakers have the Thunder set as major road favorites in this game.

Granted, the Pacers are without superstar guard Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) in the 2025-26 season, but can they at least cover the spread in this one? I’m eyeing a prop bet for Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard as he looks to replace some of Haliburton’s production.

In the second game on Thursday, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets hit the road to play Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors, who knocked off the Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points on Tuesday night. 

Oddsmakers have the Nuggets favored in this matchup, as they’ve won eight of their last nine matchups with Golden State (although they did lose the final one in the 2024-25 season).

Here’s a look at my favorite bets for Thursday’s two-game slate! 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 2-4 (-2.20 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1293-1241-27 (+30.95 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Andrew Nembhard OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-106)
• Nikola Jokic OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-103)
• Jimmy Butler H2H Points Prop -2.5 vs. Aaron Gordon (-124)

Andrew Nembhard OVER 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-106)

Nembhard is set to walk into a massive role in the 2025-26 season, as Haliburton is out for the year and T.J. McConnell is sidelined for about a month with a hamstring issue.

So, that leaves Nembhard as the lead guard in an offense that loves to push the pace and lacks proven scoring options after Pascal Siakam.

I think Nembhard could be in the mix to average 15 or more points per game this season, and he’s shown in his career that he can run this offense when Haliburton sits. Across 43 games without Haliburton, Nembhard is averaging 13.0 points, 6.8 assists and 2.6 rebounds per game.

He’s become a better scorer as his career has gone on, averaging career-highs in points (10.0) and assists (5.0) in the 2024-25 season. He’s a prime candidate to make a leap this season, and I think this line is too low against OKC.  

Nikola Jokic OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-103)

I love this matchup for Jokic, as he’s been dominant on the boards against Golden State in his last 10 games against them.

Jokic is averaging 12.7 rebounds per game in his last 10 vs. the Warriors, picking up 12 or more boards in seven of those games.

The Warriors were basically even on the glass in their season opener against the Lakers, but they only played Draymond Green (started at center) and Al Horford at the center spot. Both of those players have a major size disadvantage against Jokic, who averaged a 12.7 boards per game last season and at least 12.4 boards in three of the last four seasons.

Golden State also allowed 62 points in the paint in the game against L.A., so I wouldn’t be shocked if the Nuggets focus on attacking the paint – and the offensive glass – on Thursday. 

Jimmy Butler H2H Points Prop -2.5 vs. Aaron Gordon (-124)

This is the first head-to-head player prop that I’ve taken this season, and I think Jimmy Butler is massively undervalued against the Nuggets and Aaron Gordon.

There’s a good chance these two players will match up on both ends of the floor on Thursday, but Butler is clearly the better scorer in this matchup, and we only need him to outscore Gordon by three?

Sign me up. 

Gordon’s coming off a season where he averaged 14.7 points per game, but he’s only averaged 14.6 points on 10.3 shots per game in his Denver tenure. He’s a secondary scorer to Jokic and Jamal Murray in this Nuggets offense, and there’s a chance he’s even the fourth option behind Cam Johnson.

Meanwhile, Butler is coming off a 31-point game in the season opener against the Lakers, getting to the line 16 times and knocking down all of them. He’s one of the more dynamic scorers in the game when he’s getting to the line at a high rate, and the Warriors made a point of feeding him on Tuesday.

Butler ended up playing 35.0 minutes and took 14.0 shots, and he averaged 17.9 points per game after the trade to Golden State last season. I think Butler could end up closer to 20 points on Thursday, especially with the total in this game sitting at 233.5.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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