Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Nuggets vs. Thunder, Jalen Williams)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for Game 7 between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday, May 18.

The Nuggets are underdogs in Game 7. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets love playing in Game 7s. 

Denver forced a winner-take-all matchup with the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder by winning Game 6 on Thursday night. Now, both teams are fresh off of two days off heading into this matchup on Sunday afternoon. 

This is the third consecutive series (dating back to the Western Conference semis last season) that Denver has gone to seven games, and the seventh time in Jokic’s career that Denver will play in a Game 7. 

The Nuggets are 4-2 in the previous six matchups, including a win at home in Game 7 in the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers.

In this Game 7, though, Denver has Aaron Gordon (questionable), Jamal Murray (probable) and Russell Westbrook (probable) all on the injury report.

The Thunder are favored in the latest odds, as they aim to win a sixth game at home this postseason. OKC finished the regular season with the best net rating in the NBA, but it has struggled in this series, losing Game 1 at home and falling down 2-1 earlier in the series.

The Thunder also trailed in the fourth quarter in Games 4 and 5, so oddsmakers may not be giving Jokic and the Nuggets enough credit for their play in this matchup. 

Sunday’s winner will advance to the Western Conference Finals and host the Minnesota Timberwolves for Game 1 on Tuesday night. The question is: Who will it be?

I have a pair of bets for this Game 7, including a spread pick that has chased in five out of six games so far in this matchup. Here’s a full breakdown of that bet and more for Sunday’s action! 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 259-250-4 (-4.17 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1269-1194-26 (+33.95 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Denver Nuggets +8 (-108) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder  – 0.5 unit
• Jalen Williams UNDER 20.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

Denver Nuggets +8 (-108) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder  – 0.5 unit

While Oklahoma City was the better team in the regular season, this series has not gone well – from a betting standpoint – for the Thunder.

OKC is just 1-5 against the spread, covering only in its 43-point win in Game 2 at home. Denver has either won outright or covered as an underdog in every other game.

The Nuggets also have lost by just five and seven points in their last two losses, leading both of those games when entering the fourth quarter. So, I’m not sold on OKC running away with this game at home.

To put it simply, the Thunder have struggled to find secondary scoring options after SGA that have been consistent. Jalen Williams is shooting just 33.7 percent from the field in the series and Chet Holmgren is averaging just 14.3 points per game.

Meanwhile, Jokic – no matter who wins the MVP – is the best player in the world. The Nuggets big man has played in a ton of Game 7s, and he turned in two of his best performances of the series in Games 5 and 6. 

OKC was dominant against the spread in the regular season, but it’s been a different story in this series. Since Game 7s are usually low scoring, I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Nuggets at least keep one close. Eight points is way too many to give either team in this series. 

Jalen Williams UNDER 20.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

If the Thunder are going to win this game, they’ll need Jalen Williams to come along for the ride, but I’m far from sold on him having a big enough game to erase his struggles during this series.

Williams is shooting 33.7 percent from the field and 21.2 percent from 3 in this matchup, and he’s only scored 20 or more points in one game (Game 3). 

Plus, Williams has really struggled over his last three games despite getting some solid usage on the offensive end. 

• Game 4: 10 points (2-for-13 FG)
• Game 5: 18 points (5-for-14 FG)
• Game 6: 6 points (3-for-16 FG)

Williams had similar issues in the second round last season, and I’m not willing to bet on him to have one of his best games of the series in a winner-take-all Game 7.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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