Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Pistons-Spurs, Reed Sheppard, Magic, Rockets)

Several games with playoff implications highlight a huge Thursday in the NBA, and there’s plenty of bets to consider both in the prop market and when it comes to the game lines.

Here’s a quick look at the top matchups on Thursday, including a rematch between two of the best young teams in the NBA in San Antonio and Detroit:

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
Detroit Pistons vs. San Antonio Spurs
Toronto Raptors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Fresh off of a 3-0 night on Wednesday I’m looking to keep the momentum going ahead of a massive nine-game slate on March 5.

There are a few plays that I’m eyeing, including a two-team parlay, a pick for Pistons-Spurs Part II and a pair of guards to trust in the prop market.

Let’s dive into the odds and analysis for each pick on Thursday night.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 194-158 (+6.67 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1485-1395-27 (+38.83 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Orlando Magic-Houston Rockets Moneyline Parlay (-172)
Immanuel Quickley OVER 5.5 Assists (-143)
San Antonio Spurs Moneyline (-155) vs. Detroit Pistons
Reed Sheppard OVER 13.5 Points (-119)

Orlando Magic-Houston Rockets Moneyline Parlay (-172)

I’m starting off the night with a two-team moneyline parlay featuring a pair of playoff–caliber teams that are heavily favored at home.

Orlando Magic

The Orlando Magic have fallen short of expectations so far this season, but I’m buying them at home on Thursday against the struggling Dallas Mavericks.

Dallas is one of the worst road teams in the NBA this season, going 7-20 overall and 7-12 against the spread when set as a road dog – the second-worst mark in the NBA.

Cooper Flagg (foot) is questionable for this matchup, but I wouldn't be shocked if he sits out another game and returns against his hometown team – the Boston Celtics – on Friday night. When Flagg sits this season, the Mavs are just 4-8 overall.

Dallas has dropped four games in a row and has a net rating of -10.5 over its last 10 games (26th in the NBA).

For as much as Orlando has struggled this season, it is 18-11 at home and 18-5 against teams that are under .500. So, bettors should be willing to trust the Magic in this game, especially since Dallas is not trying to win at this point in the season.

Houston Rockets

Houston is heavily favored at home against the Golden State Warriors, who remain without Stephen Curry (knee) on Thursday.

The Warriors have really struggled when Curry is out of the lineup, going 8-14 overall this season while averaging just 106.6 points per game. Golden State is now just one game over .500, and it’s 19th in the NBA in net rating over its last 10 games.

A lot has been made about Houston’s struggles in crunch time, but the Rockets know how to win at home, going 20-7 this season. That’s a big reason why Kevin Durant and company hold the No. 3 seed in the West.

Golden State, on the other hand, is five games under .500 on the road and just 6-6 against the spread when set as a road underdog. This Warriors team simply lacks any offensive firepower with Curry and Jimmy Butler (torn ACL) out of the lineup, and that’s going to be an issue against a Houston team that is No. 5 in the league in defensive rating.

I’ll trust the Rockets to continue their home dominance on Thursday.

Immanuel Quickley OVER 5.5 Assists (-143)

Toronto Raptors guard Immanuel Quickley is averaging 6.1 assists on 10.5 potential assists per game this season, but he’s been even better as of late, putting up 11 and 12 dimes in his last two games.

Since returning from a two-game absence on Jan. 18, Quickley is averaging 6.1 assists per game across 18 games, clearing this line in 10 of those matchups. That includes an eight-assist game in his first meeting with the Minnesota Timberwolves in the 2025-26 season.

There are going to be some ups and downs for Quickley in this market – just three games ago he didn’t record a single assist – but the highs he’s had over the last month are undeniable. I think he’s a solid target with this prop set below his season average, as the Wolves are allowing nearly nine dimes per game to opposing point guards in the 2025-26 campaign.

San Antonio Spurs Moneyline (-155) vs. Detroit Pistons

The Spurs pulled off a road win over the Eastern Conference-leading Pistons earlier this season, dominating them with their defensive scheme.

Cade Cunningham shot 5-of-26 from the field in that matchup, and the Spurs held the Pistons to just 103 points. While it’ll be tough to duplicate that defensive effort, San Antonio exposed the fact that the Pistons lack a secondary creator behind Cunningham, and they have the guard defenders (led by Stephon Castle) to make things tough on the All-Star guard.

The Spurs have the best net rating in the NBA over their last 15 games (+12.7), going 13-2 during that stretch. The Pistons are fifth in net rating over their last 15 games, but they’ve lost recent games to Cleveland and San Antonio – two potential title contenders.

I don’t want to dismiss the Pistons, but the Spurs are an elite team at home, going 21-6 this season. After a long road trip, I think San Antonio relishes a chance to sweep the Pistons in front of its home crowd.

Reed Sheppard OVER 13.5 Points (-119)

Houston Rockets guard Reed Sheppard has recently entered the team’s starting lineup – he’s started three of the last four games – and it’s opened things up for the Rockets spacing-wise.

Sheppard is arguably the best shooter on the Houston roster after Kevin Durant, and the second-year guard has come on strong as of late, scoring 15 or more points in seven of his last 10 games.

During that 10-game stretch, Sheppard is averaging 16.8 points per game while shooting 48.0 percent from the field and 45.8 percent from 3-point range. He’s taking 12.5 shots per game during that stretch with over eight of them coming from beyond the arc.

Now, Sheppard takes on a Golden State team that is allowing 26.46 points per game to opposing point guards – the fourth-most in the NBA. In his first meeting with the Warriors, Sheppard shot 12-of-25 from the field and finished with 31 points.

If Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson or Jabari Smith Jr. (all questionable) sit in this game, Sheppard could see an even bigger role than usual on offense, making him an intriguing prop target in this matchup.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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