Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Spurs vs. Thunder Game 2)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a solid prop target in Game 2. | Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

I’m still not recovered from Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, but it’s time for another edition of Peter’s Points – so here I am.

The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder played an instant classic in Game 1, going to double overtime before the Spurs came away with a massive road win to open the series. Victor Wembanyama (41 points, 24 rebounds) was by far the best player on the floor, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shot just 7-for-23 after accepting his second MVP award of his career. 

There’s no doubt that SGA and the Thunder will be motivated to even this series in Game 2, but both teams may be a little fatigued after heavy minutes were played across the board in Game 1. 

Oddsmakers have set the Thunder as 6.5-point favorites for the second game in a row, but I’m avoiding a side in Game 2 – even though we cashed the Spurs +6.5 in Game 1. 

Instead, I’m taking a player prop for SGA as my top bet on Wednesday. In addition to that, the total could be an interesting angle after Game 1 was dominated by these two elite defenses. 

So, without further ado, today’s edition of Peter’s Points! 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 307-261 (-1.42 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1598-1497-27 (+31.73 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 27.5 Points (-123)
• San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 215.5 (-110)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 27.5 Points (-123)

Get all the SGA takes off now! 

Yes, the two-time league MVP was not good in Game 1 of this series, scoring 24 points on 7-of-23 shooting while the Spurs walled him off from getting in the paint all game long.

However, this line is a massive overreaction for a player that has a sky-high usage rate and is arguably the best scorer in the league. 

SGA is averaging 28.6 points per game during this playoff run after putting up 31.1 points per game in the regular season, and the Spurs haven’t completely shut him down in the 2025-26 season. In four regular season meetings with San Antonio, SGA had 29, 33, 22 and 34 points, clearing this number three times. 

Game 1 was a poor showing, but I’m going to bet on a bounce-back showing from the league MVP, especially if he’s going to hover around 20 shot attempts. Gilgeous-Alexander has been too efficient this season (55.3 percent from the field in the regular season, 48.5 percent in the playoffs) to expect another dud in Game 2. 

San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 215.5 (-110)

These teams were No. 1 and No. 3 in defensive rating in the regular season, and they’re currently No. 1 (San Antonio) and No. 6 (OKC) in defensive rating during the playoffs. 

Game 1 of this series was tied at 101 at the end of regulation, and it needed two overtimes to go well over this total. If we don’t see overtime in Game 2, the UNDER is a terrific bet, as these teams have combined to allow just over 210 points per game in the playoffs. 

Both of these teams shot under 43 percent from the field in Game 1, and Spurs turned the ball over a whopping 21 times, really limiting their ceiling on offense despite Wemby dropping 41 points. 

Mitch Johnson had the Spurs doubling SGA quite a bit, and San Antonio seemed comfortable leaving OKC’s lesser offensive players open from beyond the arc. That certainly limited the Thunder’s explosiveness on that end, and poor showings from Chet Holmgren and Ajay Mitchell led to OKC scoring just 115 points in the double-overtime loss. 

During the regular season, the Thunder were the No. 1 defense and allowed the second-fewest points per game in the NBA. If they want to get back in this series, they’re going to need to rely on their defense to lead the way. 

After these squads were set to come up well short of this total in Game 1, I think we’re getting a pretty favorable – if there isn’t overtime – in Game 2. 

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