Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Steph Curry, Nikola Jokic, KD, More on Christmas)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Christmas Day.

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry is a great prop target on Thursday. / John Hefti-Imagn Images

Merry Christmas, NBA fans!

The biggest day in the NBA’s regular season is upon us, as there are five terrific games to enjoy all throughout Christmas Day, including the third meeting of the season between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs after Victor Wembanyama and company handed OKC another loss on Tuesday night.

Here’s a quick look at the full Christmas Day slate: 

• Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks
• San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
• Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
• Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets

There are a ton of playoff teams – and potential NBA title contenders – set to be in action on Thursday, and I’m eyeing a bunch of bets on the holiday.

Every season, I try to give out at least one play for each game on Christmas, and this season is no different – especially with the strong start that we’ve had in Peter’s Points. Through the first two months of the regular season, I’m 26 picks over .500 and up over seven units on the year.

The 72-win Chicago Bulls once said that their great record “Don’t mean a thing without the ring,” and a good start to the season with these plays won’t matter without a big Christmas Day showing as well!

Here’s a complete breakdown of each of my bets for a loaded Christmas Day slate in the 2025-26 season. 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 107-81 (+7.53 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1398-1318-27 (+40.69 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New York Knicks-Golden State Warriors Moneyline Parlay (-119)
• San Antonio Spurs +9.5 (-115) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Jalen Brunson-Steph Curry Points Parlay (-106)
• Donovan Mitchell OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)
• Cooper Flagg OVER 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)
• Kevin Durant OVER 24.5 Points (-122)
• Nikola Jokic OVER 22.5 Rebounds and Assists (-110)

New York Knicks-Golden State Warriors Moneyline Parlay (-119)

New York Knicks

The Knicks are one of the best home teams in the NBA this season, and a ton of numbers back that up. 

New York is 14-2 straight up at home, posting an average scoring margin for +12.1 points in those games. The Knicks are dominant against the spread at home as well, posting a league-best 13-3 mark in 16 games. 

They also have the third-best net rating (+12.3) at home in the NBA.

Meanwhile, the Cavs are struggling mightily this season compared to their expectations, sitting in seventh in the East while going .500 on the road. The Cavs have not shot the ball nearly as well as they did last season (21st in 3-point percentage), and they rank 16th in the NBA in defensive rating.

That’s going to be a major problem against a Knicks team that is No. 2 in the league in offensive rating, especially since the Cavs may not have Evan Mobley (questionable) patrolling the paint due to his calf injury. 

I’m all in on the Knicks winning this game, and they already have a victory over the Cavs where Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson both sat out. 

Golden State Warriors

Golden State’s matchup with Dallas is a perfect spot for the Warriors to get back over .500, as they’re 9-4 at home while the Mavs are just 3-9 on the road.

Now, Dallas is much better with Anthony Davis in the lineup (8-7), but I’m still buying the Warriors to win a third game in a row on Christmas. 

Golden State has a net rating of +8.3 (seventh in the NBA) at home this season while Dallas is 23rd in road net rating (-6.2) in 12 games. On top of that, this Golden State defense (third in the NBA in defensive rating) is going to be a huge test for a Dallas team that has struggled all year scoring the ball.

The Mavs are 27th in the league in offensive rating and 23rd in points per game. While the Warriors are 22nd in the league in points per game, they’re in the top half of the league in scoring at home, averaging three more points than their overall season average. 

San Antonio Spurs +9.5 (-115) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Spurs have knocked off the Thunder two times already this season, and this is still a tough game for OKC in terms of rest, as it’s their third game in four nights.

The Thunder have not lost a game at home this season – and I’m not expecting that streak to end – but this is entirely too many points to give the Spurs.

San Antonio is 8-4 against the spread as an underdog this season, posting an average scoring margin of +4.3 points in those games. That’s pretty insane, as the Spurs have won outright in eight of those games as well. 

OKC still has the No. 1 defensive and net rating in the league, but the Spurs rank in the top seven in the NBA in net, defensive and offensive rating. Even with Victor Wembanyama on a minutes limit, the Spurs have beaten the Thunder twice, including a 20-point blowout on Tuesday night. 

Oddsmakers are clearly pricing in the tremendous start to the season for the Thunder, but they’re just 2-3 in their last five games and are facing a Spurs team that clearly is ready to contend now. I’ll gladly take the points in this afternoon matchup. 

Jalen Brunson-Steph Curry Points Parlay (-106)

Jalen Brunson 25+ Points

Jalen Brunson sat out for rest on Tuesday, but the star guard has been on a heater since the start of December, scoring 25 or more points in eight of his 10 games (including the NBA Cup Championship), pushing his season average to 29.1 points per game.

Brunson has a favorable matchup against a Cleveland team that is just 16th in the NBA in defensive rating and lacks any true elite wing defender on the roster to give him problems.

The star guard is averaging 21.3 shots per game, and he’s scored 25 or more points in 19 of his 26 games overall. Plus, Brunson has at least 20 points in each of his last four Christmas games. 

Steph Curry 25+ Points

Steph Curry has just two Christmas Day games with 25 or more points in his career, but he had 38 points last season against the Lakers.

I’m buying Curry on Thursday, as he’s averaging 28.7 points per game this season and has scored 25 or more points in 13 games this season, including four of his last five since returning from an injury.

Curry is taking a whopping 20.0 shots and 12.3 3-pointers per game – both up from last season.

He should have a big day against a Dallas defense that is allowing over 26 points per game to opposing point guards in the 2025-26 season. 

Donovan Mitchell OVER 3.5 3-Pointers Made (-130)

The Cavs’ offense has been carried by Donovan Mitchell this season, and he’s having a great shooting season, knocking down 38.8 percent of his 3s on 10.4 attempts per game.

Mitchell leads the NBA in 3s per game (4.0) and he’s made at least four shots from deep in 16 of his appearances in the 2025-26 campaign.

That puts him in a great spot against the Knicks on Christmas, as New York ranks 26th in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made and 19th in opponent 3-point percentage.

While Mitchell made just two 3-pointers in the season opener against the Knicks, he also shot nine times from deep. In fact, the star guard has at least nine 3-pointers attempted in 22 of his 28 games. 

That gives him a terrific floor when it comes to this prop on Thursday afternoon. 

Cooper Flagg OVER 29.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)

I’m buying No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg in his Christmas debut, as he’s been on fire in the month of December.

Flagg is averaging 24.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game this month while shooting 52.7 percent from the field and 30.8 percent from 3. He’s knocked down five of his last seven shots from deep, a big step forward since he’s shooting just 26.7 percent this season.

In December, Flagg has 30 or more points, rebounds and assists in seven of his 10 games, and he’s pushed his season averages to 19.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game. 

For a player that stuffs the stat sheet as much as Flagg, this number is pretty low on Christmas Day. 

Kevin Durant OVER 24.5 Points (-122)

Kevin Durant has scored 25 or more points in 13 of his 25 games this season, and he’s averaging 25.2 points per game.

Now, he takes on a Lakers defense that is one of the worst in the league, ranking 24th in defensive rating overall, including 28th over its last 10 games. The Lakers are allowing 117.4 points per game, setting Durant up in a great spot to score 25 or more points on Thursday. 

In his career on Christmas, Durant has always risen to the occasion, averaging 28.5 points, 7.2 rebounds and 4.9 assists in 12 games. He’s cleared 24.5 points in nine of those matchups, including a 27-point showing against Denver last season. 

Nikola Jokic OVER 22.5 Rebounds and Assists (-110)

Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic is averaging a triple-double this season, and he’s cleared 22.5 rebounds and assists in both of his matchups with Minnesota this season, hanging 29 and 23 rebounds and assists on them.

Jokic is averaging a whopping 19.6 rebound chances and 18.1 potential assists per game, giving him a solid floor when it comes to clearing this prop. 

The Nuggets star is averaging 12.0 rebounds and 10.9 assists per game, so this is right at his season average on Thursday. 

Minnesota does have one of the best defenses in the NBA, but I’m buying the Nuggets’ MVP candidate, as he’s carried a massive load on offense with Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun banged up.

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