Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Tyrese Maxey, De’Aaron Fox, 76ers vs. Knicks)

A wild first round of the NBA Playoffs wrapped up with three Game 7s over the weekend, and now the focus quickly turns to the conference semifinals with two Game 1 matchups on Monday.

The San Antonio Spurs and Victor Wembanyama finally return to the floor after a lengthy stretch off, as they’ll take on the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1. San Antonio knocked off the Portland Trail Blazers in just five games while the Wolves shocked the NBA world, defeating the Denver Nuggets in six games even with Anthony Edwards injured.

Edwards (knee) has shockingly been upgraded to questionable for Game 1, though it was reported on Sunday that he’s not expected to play in Game 1 or Game 2 (on Wednesday). It’s possible that’s changed, but the Timberwolves certainly don’t want to risk injuring the All-NBA guard further as they seek a third straight Western Conference Finals appearance.

In the Eastern Conference, Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks are in the second round for the fourth season in a row, this time taking on the Philadelphia 76ers. These teams met in a wild first-round series two years ago, and Philly looks dangerous after erasing a 3-1 series deficit against the Boston Celtics in the first round

Still, Joel Embiid and company are underdogs in Game 1 with the Knicks boasting a pretty sizable rest advantage.

It’s only right that we bet on these second-round games, and I’m eyeing three plays to kick off this week’s action!

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 281-240 (-1.59 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1572-1478-27 (+31.56 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Tyrese Maxey OVER 25.5 Points (-107)
Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 (-112) vs. New York Knicks
De’Aaron Fox OVER 5.5 Assists (-138)

Tyrese Maxey OVER 25.5 Points (-107)

76ers guard Tyrese Maxey has given the Knicks issues this season, and he’s coming off a terrific Game 7 (30 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists) to beat Boston.

Two years ago, Maxey torched the Knicks in the playoffs, scoring 25 or more points in three games, including matchups with 33, 35 and 46 points. He also thrived against New York in the regular season, scoring 30, 36, 22 and 32 points in four meetings.

Even though the Knicks have some solid defenders on the wing (Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Miles McBride, Josh Hart), Maxey is still a nightmare matchup because of his speed and all-around scoring ability.

He’s coming off a regular season where he averaged 28.3 points per game, and he cleared this total in four of seven games against Boston. I think this line is way too low for the star guard, who is playing 41.0 minutes and taking 21.6 shots per game in this year’s playoffs.

Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 (-112) vs. New York Knicks

Philly and New York split their four meetings during the regular season, going 1-1 in the two games that Embiid played in.

Embiid’s impact in the Boston series is undeniable, as the Sixers were plus-31 in Games 5, 6 and 7 with him on the floor. So, can he make a similar impact against the Knicks?

While I believe that New York will win this game – it was 30-10 at home in the regular season and 2-1 against Atlanta – I do think this spread is a little wide considering how well Philly is playing at the moment.

The Sixers have a lot of ways to attack offense with Embiid, Maxey and Paul George all bringing different games to the table. On top of that, Philly is 14-13 against the spread as a road dog, posting an average scoring margin of just minus-4.5 in those games.

Now, the Knicks are 25-14 against the spread when favored at home, but the series between these teams two years ago saw just one game decided by more than seven points. Pretty crazy!

I don’t want to directly compare those two teams – New York didn’t have KAT and Mikal Bridges, Philly didn’t have Paul George and VJ Edgecombe – but the talent on both sides has improved. As long as Embiid is on the floor, I think there’s an argument for the Sixers to keep this game within two possessions on Monday night.

De’Aaron Fox OVER 5.5 Assists (-138)

San Antonio Spurs star De’Aaron Fox stepped up in the first round of the playoffs, averaging 20.2 points per game while shooting 50.0 percent from the field and 37.0 percent from 3. He also dished out 6.8 assists per game, and that’s where I’m targeting him in the prop market in Game 1.

Minnesota has a better defense than Portland, but Fox picked up six or more dimes in four of the five games against Portland, tallying eight, seven and nine dimes in the three games that Victor Wembanyama completed.

Wemby opens up a ton of easy assist opportunities for Fox, who averaged over six dimes per game in the regular season. In the playoffs, the star guard is averaging 10.8 potential assists per game, and he’s averaging over 46 passes per night.

The potential assists is the key number here, as Fox needs to convert just over half of those to clear this prop. I think he’s worth a look against a Wolves team that he recorded 12 dimes against in their last regular-season meeting.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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