Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Victor Wembanyama, Spurs-Thunder, Ajay Mitchell)

The series we’ve all been waiting for is finally upon us in the Western Conference Finals.

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder.

Victor Wembanyama vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

What more could NBA fans ask for than the two teams with the best regular season records set to face off with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line?

Oklahoma City stormed through the first two rounds of the playoffs, going 8-0 as it looks to win a second consecutive NBA title and become the first team to repeat since the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018.

Meanwhile, the Spurs needed six games to get past the Minnesota Timberwolves, but they closed the series in dominant fashion, winning Games 5 and 6 by a combined 59 points.

These teams are No. 1 (OKC) and No. 2 (San Antonio) in the odds to win the NBA Finals, though the Thunder have been odds-on favorites to win it all for quite some time. Still, San Antonio won four of the five meetings between these teams in the regular season, including three of the four that Jalen Williams played in.

Williams (hamstring) has not played since Game 2 of the first round of the playoffs, and his return in this series is certainly a massive boost for OKC.

There are just three series remaining in the NBA Playoffs and a ton of nights with standalone games. So, my goal is to deliver multiple plays every day to help our readers get the most of the Conference Finals and eventually the NBA Finals.

Here’s a look at all three of my plays for Game 1 of the Spurs vs. Thunder matchup, which includes a pick for Wemby in his Conference Finals debut.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 297-258 (-6.09 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1588-1494-27 (+27.06 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Victor Wembanyama 12+ Rebounds (-173)
San Antonio Spurs +6.5 (-105) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Ajay Mitchell OVER 12.5 Points (-129)

Victor Wembanyama 12+ Rebounds (-173)

Wembanyama’s rebounding has been a major key for the Spurs this postseason, as he’s averaging 10.7 rebounds per game in the playoffs despite leaving Game 2 against Portland and Game 4 against Minnesota in the first half (one with an injury and one for an ejection).

The former No. 1 overall pick has six playoff games with 12 or more boards, and he’s seen his minutes jump in a big way from where they were in the regular season. That’s important to note in this prop because Wemby was on a minutes restriction in several games against OKC this season.

He had nine, five and 11 boards in his first three games against the Thunder, playing less than 26 minutes in each of those matchups. In the one game where he played over 28 minutes against OKC, Wembanyama came away with 14 boards.

As good as the Thunder have been, they do have some issues on the glass. They finished the regular season at No. 22 in the league in rebound percentage, and they are a pretty beatable team on the glass when Isaiah Hartenstein is off the floor.

Wembanyama is averaging over 16 rebound chances per game in the playoffs despite leaving two games early, so he has a solid floor when it comes to this prop.

If you want to ladder this prop, it could be worth it since Wemby has several 15-plus rebound games this postseason: 13+ (-117), 14+ (+126), 15+ (+186), 16+ (+272), 17+ (+394).

San Antonio Spurs +6.5 (-105) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

This season, the Spurs had OKC’s number, winning three games outright as underdogs while going 4-1 overall. The Thunder did have a commanding win in their final meeting (where most of the rotation players suited up), but I’m not totally sold on OKC being more than a two-possession favorite in Game 1.

There’s always the “Rest vs. Rust” question entering a series like this, but I think the Thunder showed in the second round that a team can hang around if they take SGA out of things on offense. The Spurs are well-equipped (at least better than the Lakers) to handle the SGA challenge, and they have the Defensive Player of the Year (Wemby) protecting everything at the rim.

OKC trailed at halftime twice against the Lakers and failed to cover the spread in Game 4 – a five-point win – despite Luka Doncic not suiting up in the series.

I’m not going to say that the Spurs will pull off an upset, but San Antonio was 10-5 against the spread as a road underdog in the regular season, and it had a top-three offensive, defensive and net rating.

Oklahoma City has been pretty dominant at home (34-7 in the regular season, 4-0 in the playoffs), but it has covered the spread in just 21 of 44 games as a home favorite.

I don’t mind taking the points with this line set at 6.5 in Game 1. The Thunder were 8.5-point favorites in one game against Phoenix and 9.5-point favorites in a game against L.A. (albeit both on the road). The Spurs are a massive step up from those teams, and I’m not sure that the betting market has fully adjusted ahead of Game 1.

Ajay Mitchell OVER 12.5 Points (-129)

Thunder guard Ajay Mitchell has put together an extremely impressive postseason, and he could be an X-Factor in this series. Mitchell missed multiple regular season games against the Spurs due to injury, yet he’s been arguably the second-best offensive player for the Thunder in the playoffs.

Mitchell is averaging 18.8 points per game in the postseason, shooting 47.1 percent from the field and 36.1 percent from 3. He’s scored at least 13 points in seven of eight games, taking on an expanded role with Jalen Williams (hamstring) sidelined.

Even with Williams returning for Game 1, Mitchell should have a featured role on offense, especially when SGA is on the bench.

He’s taking almost 15 shots per game in the postseason, giving him a really solid floor when it comes to any scoring prop. I’m buying him at this discounted number in Game 1.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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