Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Victor Wembanyama, Tyrese Maxey, Knicks vs. 76ers)

Game 3 of the conference semifinals is a make or break night for one lower seed, and it’s a swing game in the Western Conference, which makes tonight’s action extremely exciting to bet on.

The Philadelphia 76ers are looking to avoid a 3-0 series deficit against the New York Knicks, and they’re hoping to have Joel Embiid (questionable) back in the lineup after he missed Game 2. Meanwhile, the Knicks are dealing with a hamstring injury for OG Anunoby, which could really open the door for Philly on Friday night.

Later in the night, the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves play a critical Game 3 after splitting Games 1 and 2 in San Antonio. The Spurs bounced back from their Game 1 loss to win by 38 on Wednesday night, but the Wolves have yet to lose a playoff game at home in 2026.

On Friday night, I’m eyeing two player props and one moneyline pick as the higher seeds look to take control of these conference semifinal matchups.

Victor Wembanyama headlines tonight’s prop picks, as he’s been a monster on the glass in the playoffs. Let’s dive into the odds and analysis behind each of these three plays on May 8.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 287-246 (-2.45 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1578-1484-27 (+30.70 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Tyrese Maxey OVER 24.5 Points (-124)
Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline (-118) vs. New York Knicks
Victor Wembanyama 12+ Rebounds (-172)

Tyrese Maxey OVER 24.5 Points (-124)

I’ve bet on Tyrese Maxey’s point total in the first two games of this series (and Game 7 against Boston), and I’m not going to stray from it in Game 3.

Even with Embiid questionable, Maxey should hold a major role in the offense after he took 23 shots and scored 26 points in Game 2. Now, with Anunoby banged up, the Knicks have to shake up their defense against Philly, which could give Maxey a few more favorable matchups in Game 3.

All season long, Maxey has given the Knicks issues, and he did in the playoffs in 2024. Two seasons ago, Maxey torched the Knicks in the playoffs, scoring 25 or more points in three games, including matchups with 33, 35 and 46 points. He also thrived against New York in the regular season in the 2025-26 campaign, scoring 30, 36, 22 and 32 points in four meetings.

Maxey closed out the Boston series with 25, 30 and 30 points, and he’s now cleared this total in four of his last five games. I don’t read too much into Game 1, as Nick Nurse waved the white flag early with Philly down big.

Since Game 3 is a must-win for the Sixers, I expect a heavy workload for Maxey, who is coming off a regular season where he averaged 28.3 points per game.

Philadelphia 76ers Moneyline (-118) vs. New York Knicks

This is a must-win game for the 76ers since no team in the history of the NBA has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit.

While I think the Knicks have proven they are the better team in this series, the injury to Anunoby could swing things back in Philly’s favor. The Knicks were just 8-7 in the 2025-26 campaign when Anunoby sat, and he’s been awesome in the playoffs, averaging 21.4 points per game while shooting over 60 percent from the field and 50 percent from 3.

Not only is Anunoby one of New York’s best offensive players, but he’s their top overall defender and has drawn the Paul George assignment in this series. So, it’ll be interesting to see how the Knicks match up with Philly in Game 3.

New York is one of the worst teams in the NBA against the spread on the road this season, and it went just 22-19 on the road in the regular season. On top of that, the Knicks failed to cover in Game 2 with Embiid on the bench.

After New York put a ton of miles on Jalen Brunson and others to win Game 2, I wouldn't be shocked to see Philly make this a series on Friday night.

Victor Wembanyama 12+ Rebounds (-172)

Wembanyama has not scored the ball at a high level in the conference semifinals (30 points in two games), but it hasn't impacted his rebounding numbers.

The superstar center has 15 rebounds in each of his two games against the Wolves, and he’s picked up at least 12 boards in four playoff games in a row since he returned from the concussion he suffered in Game 2 of the first round.

Wembanayam is averaging over 20 rebound chances per game in his last three games, giving him a solid floor when it comes to this prop.

I expect him to control the glass on Friday, even though the Wolves are No. 2 amongst playoff teams in rebound percentage.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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