Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Hawks vs. Bucks and Rockets vs. Thunder)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA Cup semifinals on Saturday, Dec. 14.

Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young is a solid prop target on Saturday. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Four teams have a chance to punch their ticket to the NBA Cup Final on Saturday, as the Milwaukee Bucks take on the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference and the Oklahoma City Thunder face the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference in the semifinals.

All of these teams have had plenty of time off – last playing on Wednesday – so we should see some high-level, playoff-like basketball on Saturday night. 

As always, I’m betting on the NBA Cup action tonight, with four plays – including a parlay that features Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

Let’s break down these picks. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 77-75-3 (-0.35 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1087-1020-25 (+37.73 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Trae Young OVER 20.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Jalen Johnson OVER 18.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Alperen Sengun OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit
• Superstar Parlay (-151) – 0.5 unit

Trae Young OVER 20.5 Points (-110) – 0.5 unit

It’s been a tough season for Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young scoring the basketball, as he’s averaging just 21.0 points per game while shooting 38.4 percent from the field and 30.8 percent from beyond the arc.

However, this is about as good of a matchup as you’ll find for Young in the NBA. Milwaukee has been awful defending the guard position, allowing an NBA-high 28.42 points per game to opposing point guards this season.

Young did have a huge game on Wednesday, scoring 22 points against New York – but he didn’t shoot the ball well (8-for-22 from the field). Hopefully, he’ll see his field goal percentage rise on Saturday against a weaker defense.

Not only that, but Jalen Suggs dropped 32 on the Bucks on Tuesday in the NBA Cup quarterfinals. Don’t be shocked if Young has a big scoring game on Saturday. 

Jalen Johnson OVER 18.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit

I’m surprised to see this points prop for Hawks forward Jalen Johnson down at 18.5, as he’s averaging 19.8 points per game and has cleared this number in eight of his last 10 games.

On the season, Johnson has 16 games – out of 24 – where he’s finished with 19 or more points. 

Against a Milwaukee team that ranks 14th in defensive rating and is allowing over 112 points per game, I expect one of Johnson or Young to have a big game – and likely both – on Saturday. 

Alperen Sengun OVER 10.5 Rebounds (-115) – 0.5 unit

Houston Rockets big man Alperen Sengun went off against Golden State on Wednesday, scoring 26 of the team’s 91 points while grabbing 11 rebounds. He also dished out five dimes and picked up three steals in the win.

So far this season, Sengun’s scoring is a little down compared to last season, but he’s averaging an impressive 10.6 rebounds per game. That’s where I plan on backing him in the prop market on Saturday, 

Oklahoma City is a great defensive team, but it struggles on the glass, allowing 47.9 opponent rebounds per game (29th in the NBA) and it ranks 28th in the league in rebounding percentage.

Earlier this season, Sengun had 14 boards in a win over OKC, and he’s had 17 games (out of 25) with at least 10 boards. That gives him a terrific floor when it comes to this prop on Saturday night. 

Superstar Parlay (-151) – 0.5 unit

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ 3-Pointers Made

SGA is now averaging 30.2 points per game, and he’s done it by taking the most 3-pointers of his career – and by a wide margin.

The MVP candidate took just 3.6 shots from deep per game last season, but that number has risen to 6.3 this season. He’s knocking down an average of 2.1 3s per game – good for a 34.0 percent clip – heading into this matchup with Houston. 

Now, that isn’t a great percentage, but SGA has hit two or more shots from 3 in 15 of his 24 games this season. Not only that, but he made five 3-pointers against Dallas on Tuesday, and has three or more made shots from deep in five of his last eight games – including a 3-for-7 showing against Houston.

Over that eight-game stretch, SGA is shooting 34.4 percent from deep, but he’s taking 8.0 shots from there per game. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo 25+ Points

Earlier this season, Giannis Antetokounmpo put up a smooth 31 points against Atlanta, taking 26 shots from the free-throw line (he hit 15) and going 8-for-14 from the field.

The Bucks lost that game, but Giannis has now scored 30 or more points in eight of his last nine games, giving him a tremendous floor when it comes to his scoring prop. In fact, he’s scored 25 or more points in 17 of the 22 games that he’s appeared in this season.  

The two-time MVP is averaging 32.7 points per game while shooting 61.2 percent from the field. It’s hard to find a much better matchup, as Atlanta loves to push the pace (third in the NBA) and ranks just 18th in defensive rating.

Given Giannis’ scoring dominance this season, he’s worth a shot in this parlay during a crucial NBA Cup game.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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