Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jayson Tatum, Nikola Jokic, Pistons-Knicks)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA playoff action on Tuesday, April 29.

Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum is a great prop target in Game 5. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Tuesday is a massive day in the NBA playoffs as there is a chance that three Eastern Conference series could come to a close with the home teams all up 3-1 entering Game 5.

The New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers, and Boston Celtics are all aiming to close things out and advance to the second round, and oddsmakers have them all favored to do so on April 29.

Meanwhile, in the Western Conference, Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, and the Denver Nuggets evened their first-round matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday night, setting a critical Game 5 in Denver on Tuesday. 

Throughout the NBA playoffs, I’ll be breaking down and betting on the action at SI Betting, and I have a side or player prop for bettors to consider in every matchup on Tuesday night.

Here’s a full breakdown of the picks, including prop plays for Jayson Tatum and Nikola Jokic. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 236-229-4 (-4.70 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1246-1174-26 (+33.38 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Indiana Pacers -7.5 (-112) vs. Milwaukee Bucks – 0.5 unit
• Detroit Pistons +5.5 (-112) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit
• Jayson Tatum OVER 35.5 Points and Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit
• Nikola Jokic OVER 9.5 Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit

Indiana Pacers -7.5 (-112) vs. Milwaukee Bucks – 0.5 unit

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been fantastic in this series, but he doesn’t have enough help for Milwaukee to win this game, never mind this series. 

The Bucks have lost by 26, eight, and 19 in their three losses, and their lone win came in a game in which Gary Trent Jr. scored 37 points. I’m not holding my breath and expecting that to happen again, and now with Damian Lillard out for the season with a torn Achilles, the Bucks’ margin for error is even slimmer.

The Pacers dominated Game 4 after Lillard went down, and the Bucks looked shell-shocked now that they’re down their second-best player. I don’t see them competing in Game 5, as it’s been pretty evident all series that after Giannis, there is no guarantee for instant offense for the Bucks.

The fact that they are relying heavily on Kevin Porter Jr. to carry some minutes on the offensive end is a terrible sign. 

In this series, the Pacers have an offensive rating of 120.2 and the second-best effective field goal percentage of any playoff team. Simply put, they are getting whatever they want on the offensive end.

This series felt over as soon as Dame went down, and the Pacers will make it official on Tuesday night. 

Detroit Pistons +5.5 (-112) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit

The Knicks-Pistons matchup has been much closer than the 3-1 lead for New York suggests.

The Knicks rallied in Game 1 by putting together a 21-0 run in the fourth quarter before losing Game 2 by six points – they had a chance to tie in the final seconds – in New York. Then, the Knicks picked up wins by two points and one point in Detroit.

So, just about every game has hovered around this number, and I don’t expect that this scrappy Pistons team will go quietly at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night.

The difference in this series has been the Knicks’ fourth-quarter execution, as Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns were flawless in Game 4, combining for 23 fourth-quarter points.

Brunson overall has been unreal in the fourth, scoring 53 points while dishing out eight assists and shooting 20-for-32 from the field. He did win Clutch Player of the Year for a reason.

However, I think the Pistons will be able to keep this game close, as they’ve covered this number in all but one game in this series. The Knicks may win, but as we’ve seen in the last two New York playoff runs, one-possession wins are becoming the norm for Tom Thibodeau’s squad.

This is too many points to give Detroit, considering it has a net rating of just -1.2 points per 100 possessions, worse than the Knicks in this series. 

Jayson Tatum OVER 35.5 Points and Rebounds (-125) – 0.5 unit

Jayson Tatum missed Game 2 for Boston, but he’s returned and dominated the Orlando Magic in Games 3 and 4.

Here’s a look at Tatum’s numbers from those matchups:

• Game 3: 36 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 10-of-22 FG (4-of-10 from 3)
• Game 4: 37 points, 14 rebounds, 3 assists, 10-of-25 FG (3-of-10 from 3)

While those shooting percentages aren’t great, Tatum is 26-for-26 from the free-throw line during that two-game stretch.

I’m buying him to have another big game scoring and on the glass, especially since the C’s offense has not looked great against Orlando overall. Tatum has been called upon to carry stretches for Boston, and he did that last night to will it to a Game 4 win. 

Since he’s cleared this line in points alone in each of the last two games, I’m pretty comfortable betting on him to do so again at home. 

Nikola Jokic OVER 9.5 Assists (+100) – 0.5 unit

Nikola Jokic’s playoff numbers are downright insane. He’s averaging 28.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 10.8 assists per game heading into Game 5 against the Clippers.

Overall, Jokic has 10 or more assists in three of the four games in this series, finishing with eight dimes in Game 4. He’s averaging a whopping 19.5 potential assists per game in this series.

So, I have no problem backing Jokic, who averaged double-digit assists per game in the regular season, to clear 9.5 dimes in Game 5. If the Clippers blitz/double him like they did in Games 3 and 4, he’s going to be forced to find his teammates to create offense.

Not only is Jokic willing to do that, but he also had 22 assists in the two games in Denver in this series. I love him at even money in this prop on Tuesday. 

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.