Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Warriors-Rockets, Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo)

From the play-in to the playoffs – Sunday’s NBA action features four teams that fought through the play-in tournament to make the playoffs, but their reward is facing the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in their respective conferences.

The Miami Heat became the first No. 10 seed in NBA history to win two play-in games in a row to make the playoffs, while the Memphis Grizzlies held off the Dallas Mavericks to secure the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference.

Here’s a quick look the the matchups for the NBA action on Easter Sunday:

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics
Miami Heat vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets

It’s playoff time, so you know that we’re placing some NBA bets.

There’s a lot to watch in this series, starting with Ja Morant’s ankle and how it will respond on short rest in a tough road matchup with the No. 1-seeded Thunder. Also in the Western Conference, Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and the veteran Golden State Warriors face a tough test with a Houston Rockets team that beat them in their final of five regular-season meetings.

In the Eastern Conference, both the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers are double-digit favorites on Sunday, but the Cavs may be in for a dogfight after Erik Spoelstra’s Heat surged to finish the regular season and advance through the play-in. Miami is the No. 8 seed for the third straight season, but it made the NBA Finals in the 2022-23 campaign out of that spot.

I have several players for Sunday’s action, including a player prop for Celtics star Jayson Tatum. Here’s a complete breakdown of the picks!

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

2024-25 season record: 223-216-4 (-3.36 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1233-1161-26 (+34.72 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jayson Tatum OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-160) – 0.5 unit
Golden State Warriors-Houston Rockets UNDER 212.5 (-110) – 0.5 unit
Oklahoma City Thunder -12.5 (-110) vs. Memphis Grizzlies – 0.5 unit
Bam Adebayo OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-130) – 0.5 unit

Jayson Tatum OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-160) – 0.5 unit

No team in the NBA takes or makes more 3-pointers than the Celtics, and Tatum is the head of the snake when it comes to the offensive attack.

Tatum finished the regular season averaging 3.5 made shots from beyond the arc on 10.1 attempts per game (34.3 percent), and he did have a four 3-pointer game against this Magic team.

Even though Orlando is an elite defense, Tatum and the C’s are going to get their shots up from deep. For a player who is taking over 10 3-pointers per game, it’s hard to fade Tatum at this discounted line. If Jaylen Brown is limited due to his knee issue, Tatum could see even more touches than usual for Boston.

Golden State Warriors-Houston Rockets UNDER 212.5 (-110) – 0.5 unit

Four of the five meetings between the Warriors and Rockets this season have fallen short of this total, with the only one that went over being an overtime win for Golden State.

Houston has one of the better defenses in the NBA – fifth in defensive rating – and the Warriors were No. 1 in the league in defensive rating after the All-Star break.

The Curry-Butler duo certainly screams high-scoring offense when it comes to Golden State, but these teams have played multiple games in the 2024-25 season that neither squad cracked 100 points.

On top of that, Houston has the worst field goal percentage in the NBA in clutch time (games within five points in the final five minutes). So, if this game comes down to the wire, points will likely be at a premium.

I believe that this total is being juiced up a bit by Golden State’s recent offensive play, but let’s not forget that these teams combined for less than 210 points in their last meeting in April.

I’m expecting a defensive slog on Sunday night.

Oklahoma City Thunder -12.5 (-110) vs. Memphis Grizzlies – 0.5 unit

The Thunder have won nine straight games against Memphis, dating all the way back to the 2022-23 regular season.

This season, OKC picked up wins of 21, 17, 13, and 24 points against Memphis, who still hasn’t beaten a Western Conference team that is over .500 since late January.

Sure, the Grizzlies played well enough to knock off Dallas, but now they have an unbelievably quick turnaround with a 1 p.m. EST tip on Sunday.

Oklahoma City finished the regular season with the second-best record against the spread as a home favorite (27-12-2) while the Grizzlies were under .500 against the spread as road underdogs.

Memphis also really struggled down the stretch, posting the No. 17 net rating in the NBA after the All-Star break. Even though the Grizzlies love to push the pace and can score with just about anyone, their defense slipped to No. 18 in the league after the break.

Against a healthy OKC with a massive rest advantage, I think the Grizzlies could be in trouble in Game 1.

Bam Adebayo OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-130) – 0.5 unit

Miami big man Bam Adebayo had two huge play-in tournament performances, grabbing 12 and 11 rebounds to help Miami become the first 10 seed in NBA history to advance through the play-in to make the playoffs.

This season, Adebayo had at least nine boards in every game against the Cavs, picking up 12 and 13 rebounds in two of the three times he faced them. Overall, he averaged 9.6 rebounds per game in the regular season.

I expect Adebayo to play heavy minutes on Sunday for a Heat team that is riding high after finishing the regular season with one of the best net ratings in the NBA over its final 10 games.

Since the Cavs play big with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bam and Kel’el Ware play a lot together to combat that lineup.

In his playoff career, Adebayo averages 9.1 boards per game. Given his success against Clevelan, Bam is worth a shot in this market.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.