NBA Finals MVP Opening Odds (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Heavily Favored Over Tyrese Haliburton)

The 2025 NBA Finals are just a few days away from Game 1, and the odds to win NBA Finals MVP have a clear favorite.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – the league’s regular season MVP – is a -600 favorite at DraftKings to win the Finals MVP against the Indiana Pacers.

The only other player with shorter than 16/1 odds to win Finals MVP is Pacers All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton. That’s interesting to note since Haliburton didn’t win the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award this season. Instead, that award went to Pascal Siakam, who had three 30-point games in the series win over the New York Knicks.

Here’s a breakdown of the opening odds to win Finals MVP this season.

NBA Finals MVP Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -600
Tyrese Haliburton: +750
Pascal Siakam: +1600
Jalen Williams: +3500
Chet Holmgren: +8000
Myles Turner: +20000
Lu Dort: +25000
Aaron Nesmith: +30000
Alex Caruso: +30000
Isaiah Hartenstein: +30000
Andrew Nembhard: +30000
TJ McConnell: +90000
Obi Toppin: +90000
Cason Wallace: +100000

There’s no doubt that SGA deserves to be a major favorite, especially since oddsmakers have set the Thunder as -700 favorites to win this series. So, it’s likely that OKC wins the series, and the Finals MVP will almost certainly come from the Thunder (unless we get another Jerry West situation).

SGA is averaging 29.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game in the playoffs while shooting 47.1 percent from the field. While he hasn’t been as efficient as he was in the regular season, the league MVP is averaging 30.4 points while shooting over 49 percent from the field since the start of the second round.

Unlike last season when Jaylen Brown won Finals MVP over Jayson Tatum, it’s hard to see any other Thunder player truly challenging SGA for this award. He has 11 games with 30 or more points in the playoffs, and Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren (the next two choices on the Thunder side) have both been inconsistent scorers in this playoff run.

On the Pacers' side, there is a serious argument for taking Siakam at +1600 to win Finals MVP – if you believe the Pacers can pull off what would be a crazy upset.

Siakam is averaging 21.1 points per game while shooting 53.7 percent from the field and 46.3 percent from deep in the playoffs. After winning Eastern Conference Finals MVP, Siakam has far worse odds to win this award than Haliburton.

As great as Haliburton is as a playmaker and leader of the Pacers' offense, he tends to struggle scoring the ball at times – like Game 5 against the Knicks when he put up just eight points. Plus, OKC has a ton of elite guard defenders to throw at him.

There isn’t much value in betting SGA to win Finals MVP, but with the Thunder set as such large favorites, it’s hard to see him failing to earn the award. OKC is 12-4 this postseason, going 9-1 against teams that aren’t named the Denver Nuggets.

Bettors may be better off betting on Haliburton or Siakam to Finals MVP than taking the Pacers (+500) to win this series.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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