NBA Finals Odds: Thunder, Spurs Viewed as Clear Favorites Ahead of Conference Finals

Only four teams remain in the 2026 NBA Playoffs, as the Western Conference Finals get underway on Monday night and the Eastern Conference Finals kick off on Tuesday.

The Cleveland Cavaliers were the final team to punch their ticket to the Conference Finals, knocking off the Detroit Pistons in Game 7 (on the road) to set up a series with the No. 3-seeded New York Knicks.

While the Knicks and Cavs opened the 2025-26 season as the favorites in the East, oddsmakers have made it pretty clear that the Western Conference has the better teams remaining in the playoffs. The defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder (odds-on favorites to win the title) and the No. 2-seeded San Antonio Spurs both have better odds than the Knicks and Cavs to win it all.

Latest Odds to Win the NBA Finals in 2025-26 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Oklahoma City Thunder: -165
San Antonio Spurs: +310
New York Knicks: +550
Cleveland Cavaliers: +2000

Oklahoma City has yet to lose a game in the playoffs, so it makes sense that it has skyrocketed to a -165 favorite to win it all.

Based on the implied probability associated with these odds, the Thunder have a 62.26 percent chance to repeat as NBA champions. The Spurs (24.39 percent) would likely be favored against either the Knicks or Cavs if they upset the Thunder, which is why they are currently second in the odds.

However, there is one team that I would avoid when it comes to betting in this market. For years I have been tracking a trend that dates back to the 1996-97 NBA season. Every champion since thatseason has finished in the top eight in the league in net rating during the regular season.

This season, the Thunder, Spurs and Knicks all completed that feat while the Cavs (ninth in net rating) were just outside this group.

Since the 1996-97 season, every team that won the NBA Finals finished top 8 in net rating in the regular season.

The eight teams for the 2025-26 season:

1. OKC
2. Pistons
3. Spurs
4. Celtics
5. Knicks
6. Rockets
7. Nuggets
8. Hornets
— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) April 13, 2026

So far in the playoffs, the Knicks (plus-20.0), Thunder (plus-17.0) and Spurs (plus-15.2) have lived up to that by posting the three-best net ratings in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Cavs have the sixth-best net rating (plus-1.0) this postseason after going 8-6 in 14 games.

Now, one trend isn't the sole reason to place a bet on a team to win the Finals, but it's pretty clear that Vegas believes the winner of the Western Conference Finals is going to end up winning the NBA title. A lot could change over the next few weeks, especially if a team is forced to deal with an injury, but with the Thunder getting Jalen Williams (hamstring) back, it's clear that they're the favorite to win the title in 2026.

OKC is a 6.5-point favorite in Game 1 against the Spurs on Monday night, and the the Thunder and Knicks are both at least -260 favorites in the Conference Finals. So, based on those odds, we are expected see a Knicks vs. Thunder NBA Finals this June.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $100 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google