NBA MVP Odds: How Injuries Have Opened the Door for Cade Cunningham, Victor Wembanyama

The top six candidates to win the NBA’s MVP award are all currently healthy heading down the final stretch of the regular season, making for an intriguing finish in this award market.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-260) remains the clear favorite in the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, as his case was bolstered by his return on Feb. 27 from an abdominal strain. SGA and the Oklahoma City Thunder promptly knocked off Nikola Jokic (No. 2 in the odds to win MVP) and the Denver Nuggets, and Denver has since fallen to the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference.

However, it’s far from a guarantee that SGA will win this award, especially since both he and Jokic are coming dangerously close to missing the 65-game threshold needed for postseason awards.

The betting market has taken notice of that, as Detroit Pistons star Cade Cunningahm (+1000 to win MVP) has become a public darling in this market over the last month.

"Cade has been the most bet player for MVP since Jokic returned from injury,” a FanDuel trader told Sports Illustrated.

Injuries could cause a major shift in the odds over the final stretch of the regular season, but SGA’s case appears to be the most rock solid at the moment. He’s averaging 31.8 points per game and OKC has the best record in the Western Conference.

Jokic has put up gaudy numbers (he’s averaging a triple-double), but Denver’s recent cold stretch, losing six of its last 10, has pushed him down in the odds. A big reason why is that Denver doesn’t have a guaranteed path to a top-three seed in the West, and history tells us that is a death sentence for almost all MVP cases.

Since 1983, only Russell Westbrook (2016-17) and Jokic (2021-22) have won an MVP without being a top-three seed. They were both the No. 6 seed.

There are two players that currently fit the top-three seed criteria in Cunningham and San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama, who is also the favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year award.

If Gilgeous-Alexander fails to reach the 65 games needed to win MVP, it’s possible that Cunningham (+1000) or Wemby (+2500) take over as the favorite in this market.

“SGA possibly not qualifying for the 65-game threshold impacts the pricing a ton, as it opens up the door for someone like Cade or Wemby to win,” the FanDuel trader told SI. “For example, when Jokic was hurt initially he went from the second favorite to off the board entirely with the expectation that he wouldn’t qualify."

Both Cunningham and Wembanyama have risen in the odds to win the MVP since the All-Star break, and there’s a chance they both could end up on the No. 1 team in their respective conference. Cunningham and the Pistons already have a sizable lead atop the East, which has thrust him into the No. 3 spot in the odds.

While the odds suggest another SGA-Jokic race, there could be some value in taking Cunningham or Wembanyama now in case injuries shake things up over the final month-plus of the 2025-26 regular season.

NBA MVP Odds for 2025-26 Season

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -260
Nikola Jokic: +450
Cade Cunningham: +1000
Victor Wembanyama: +2500
Jaylen Brown: +6500
Luka Doncic: +10000
Donovan Mitchell: +20000
Jalen Brunson: +50000
Anthony Edwards: +50000
Kawhi Leonard: +100000
Tyrese Maxey: +100000
Kevin Durant: +100000

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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