NBA MVP Odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Closed as Massive Favorite Over Wemby, Jokic

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander faced a near impossible task entering the 2025-26 season:

Improve upon a historic MVP season to win yet another MVP while playing for the clear title favorite in the NBA.

Yet, the superstar guard finished the regular season shooting over 55 percent from the field, averaging 31.1 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game, leading the Thunder to the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference with 64 wins.

Gilgeous-Alexander closed as basically a lock to win another MVP, sitting at -5000 in the odds (an implied probability of over 98 percent) while Victor Wembanyama (+2000) and Nikola Jokic (+4500) rounded out the top three.

With Jalen Williams missing most of the season for the Thunder due to injury, it opened up a path for SGA to win yet another MVP by keeping the Thunder atop the standings with the same dominance that they showcased in the 2024-25 season when they went on to win the NBA Finals.

OKC held off the surging San Antonio Spurs to win the West, making it extremely hard to put Wembanyama or Jokic over him in this race.

Closing NBA MVP Odds for 2025-26 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -5000
Victor Wembanyama: +2000
Nikola Jokic: +4500

Based on the closing odds, SGA is set to join an exclusive list of players to win back-to-back MVPs in their careers. Only Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (twice), Moses Malone, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Tim Duncan, Steven Nash, LeBron James (twice), Steph Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jokic have won MVPs in back-to-back seasons.

Wembanyama (the likely Defensive Player of the Year) and Jokic (averaged a triple-double this season) both put together MVP-caliber seasons.

However, it appears that oddsmakers believe they did not do enough to snatch the proverbial MVP crown from SGA. In fact, in ESPN’s Tim Bontemps' third and final MVP straw poll of the season. SGA received 88 first-place votes in the poll while no other player received more than eight first-place votes.

The poll was a clear sign that the Thunder star was going to win his second MVP in a row, making the final week of the regular season a formality. Now, SGA and the Thunder will work on being the first repeat champion since the Golden State Warriors accomplished the feat in 2017 and 2018.

Since they earned the No. 1 seed in the West, OKC will avoid both Jokic and Wembanyama until a potential Western Conference Finals series. The Spurs and Nuggets finished with the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the West, setting a potential second-round matchup.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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