NBA MVP Odds: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Remains Favored Over Nikola Jokic, Cade Cunningham

A crucial stretch is ahead in the NBA MVP race, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s odds have come down a bit due to his recent abdominal strain.

That has opened the door for Nikola Jokic, Cade Cunningham, Luka Doncic and others to contend for this award, although SGA, Jokic, Doncic and Victor Wembanyama are all getting closer and closer to missing the 65-game threshold that is required for postseason awards.

SGA is the reigning league MVP, and his Thunder remain the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. However, they aren’t running away with the top seed in the West like they did last season, which should open the door for another player to win this award over the final few months if OKC doesn’t pull away.

At the All-Star break, Jokic is second in the odds, but there are five players set at +5000 to shorter that have a serious argument in this market.

Let’s take a look at the latest MVP odds and the case for each contender before the stretch run of the regular season.

NBA MVP Odds for 2025-26 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -210
Nikola Jokic: +300
Cade Cunningham: +1400
Luka Doncic: +2000
Victor Wembanyama: +3500
Jaylen Brown: +5000
Donovan Mitchell: +14000
Anthony Edwards: +20000
Jalen Brunson: +25000
Kevin Durant: +50000
Kawhi Leonard: +50000
Tyrese Maxey: +50000

SGA Favored to Win MVP

Gilgeous-Alexander is the odds-on favorite to win the MVP, and for good reason.

OKC has the best record in the Western Conference, and the star guard is averaging 31.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game while shooting a ridiculous 55.4 percent from the field and 39.0 percent from 3.

The best player on the best team (right now) in the league, SGA has already appeared in 49 games despite an abdominal injury keeping him out before the All-Star break. That has lowered his odds in this market quite a bit, but he’s still on track to reach the 65-game mark in the 2025-26 season.

The most impressive part of SGA’s MVP case may be in his advanced numbers. The Thunder guard leads the NBA in win shares (11.4) and OKC is +15.9 point per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor.

The only knock against SGA’s case is the fact that OKC isn’t far and away the best team in the league this season, which could open the door for a secondary contender to overtake him over the final months of the regular season.

Nikola Jokic’s MVP Case Rests on Health

A knee injury cost Nikola Jokic 16 games earlier this season, and he can only miss one game the rest of the season if he wants to remain eligible for MVP and All-NBA.

So, betting on Jokic, even at +300, carries some inherent risk because an injury would completely end his MVP chase.

Despite that, the three-time league MVP has another rock solid case to win the award. He’s averaging 28.7 points, 12.3 rebounds and 10.7 assists per game while shooting 59.0 percent from the field and 42.0 percent from 3. Jokic leads the league in several advanced categories as well, including win shares per 48 minutes, VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) and box plus/minus.

The Nuggets are also +11.2 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor and -4.1 points per 100 possessions when he’s off the floor this season. The most impactful player in the NBA, Jokic would be my pick to win MVP if he’s able to play 65 games.

Who Should Be Third in the NBA MVP Race?

While Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic are the clear favorites in this market, there are four players that have a serious case to win MVP behind them.

Cade Cunningham

Cunningham and the Pistons are No. 1 in the Eastern Conference and right in the mix with OKC to finish with the best record in the NBA.

Cade’s numbers don’t stack up with Jokic or SGA – he’s averaging 25.3 points, 5.6 rebounds and 9.6 assists per game while shooting 46.2 percent from the field and 33.0 percent from 3 – but he’s asked to carry a massive workload on offense night in and night out.

If Detroit wins the East and finishes with a better record than OKC, Cunningham is going to have a real argument to win this award. The Pistons were expected to be a playoff team this season, but the fact that they’ve vaulted to the No. 1 seed in the East and a true title contender shows just how valuable Cunningham has been to this franchise.

Jaylen Brown

After many people thought Boston would have a down 2025-26 season, Jaylen Brown has led the team to the No. 2 seed in the East while having the best season of his NBA career.

He’s much further down the odds boards in this market, but the star forward is averaging 29.3 points, 6.9 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game while shooting 48.3 percent from the field and 34.8 percent from 3.

Brown is being asked to carry a huge scoring load every single night, and the C’s have a real chance to be the No. 2 seed in the East. While Brown’s advanced numbers aren’t as impressive as the ones we’ve seen from Jokic or Gilgeous-Alexander this season, his team has defied expectations more than anyone else.

Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic has the counting numbers to win MVP this season, as he’s averaging 32.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and 8.6 assists per game while shooting 47.3 percent from the field and 34.5 percent from 3.

Doncic’s efficiency is a considerably lower than Jokic and SGA, but he’s been asked to do a ton for a Lakers team that has spent large chunks of the season without LeBron James or Austin Reaves.

Injuries have been an issue for Doncic as well, as he’s missed 12 games overall and can only miss five more the rest of the season to remain eligible for postseason awards.

The biggest obstacle for Doncic is that unlike every other player mentioned, his team is not in the top three in the respective conference. Since 1983, only two players have won the league’s MVP award and not finished in the No. 1, 2 or 3 seed in their conference.

The Lakers currently hold the No. 5 spot in the West and are just 1.5 games clear of the play-in tournament. Doncic was my preseason pick to win MVP, but he needs to lead the Lakers on a major second-half run to get into true consideration. With L.A. posting a net rating of -0.3 this season, I don’t see that happening.

Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama is an elite two-way player for a San Antonio Spurs team that has defied expectations and holds the No. 2 seed in the West. San Antonio is 4-1 against the Thunder this season, and it’s only 3.5 games out of the top seed in the West at this point in the campaign.

So, it’s not crazy to think that Wemby and company could end up as the No. 1 seed in the West.

That would be a huge boost to his MVP case, but it’s worth noting the injury situation that has potential to impact his MVP candidacy. Wemby has missed 14 games already this season, meaning he can only sit out three more times to remain eligible for this award.

The Spurs big man is having a great season, averaging 24.4 points, 11.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists and an NBA-best 2.7 blocks per game while shooting 51.1 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from 3.

If the Spurs win the West in the regular season, he may jump into the top three in the odds in this market.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $300 in bonus bets instantly.