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NBA Power Rankings Based on Finals Odds (Spurs, Celtics Have Betting Value)
It's time for teams to make a playoff push in the NBA, as regular-season action is set to resume out of the All-Star break on Thursday, Feb. 19.
There are 11 teams that are viewed as true title contenders, sitting at +4000 or shorter in the latest odds to win the Finals. There's always a chance that another team could sneak into the mix in the title conversation, like the Charlotte Hornets or Los Angeles Clippers, but their most likely path to a playoff spot is by way of the play-in tournament.
The Oklahoma City Thunder remain the favorite in the futures market, but they may not have most betting value as the league enters the home stretch.
With the league on pause for a few more days, I've decided to rank each of these teams based on their odds to win the NBA Finals in the 2025-26 season.
NBA Power Rankings Based on Finals Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (+130)
The defending champs are the No. 1 team in the league in net rating, but they need Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (abdominal strain) and Jalen Williams (hamstring) to get healthy if they want to repeat.
While the Thunder should be favored to win the titel, this price is far from intriguing with so much time left in the regular season.
2. Denver Nuggets (+450)
Health will be the key for Denver this season, as Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, Cameron Johnson and others have all missed significant time.
Still, the Nuggets have the No. 1 offense in the NBA and the best player in the world in Jokic. They are clearly the No. 2 team in the betting market.
3. San Antonio Spurs (+1600)
San Antonio is 4-1 against the Thunder this season and ranks seventh in offense, third in defense and fifth in net rating. The Spurs are a young team that lacks playoff experience, but they have exceeded all expectations so far in the 2025-26 season.
4. Boston Celtics (+1500)
Boston's odds could skyrocket if Jayson Tatum (Achilles) returns and plays at an All-Star level later on this season.
Even without him, the C's are the No. 2 seed in the East and the No. 2 offense in the NBA behind a career season from Jaylen Brown.
5. Detroit Pistons (+1500)
Detroit is No. 2 in the NBA in defensive rating and has a chance to secure the best record in the entire league this season.
The Pistons' biggest question comes on offense, as they lack shooting and secondary creation after All-Star Cade Cunningham.
6. New York Knicks (+1300)
The Knicks have glaring issues on defense at times, but they are No. 1 in the league in defensive rating over their last 10 games. Can that hold up in a playoff series?
New York, when it is one, may have the best "A game" in the East.
7. Cleveland Cavaliers (+1200)
Cleveland has won nine of its last 10 games to make a serious push for a top-two seed in the East.
James Harden should raise the Cavs' ceiling a bit this season, but will he finally shake his playoff demons? The Cavs are hoping he will, as they have yet to make it out of the second round in the Donovan Mitchell era.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves (+3500)
Minnesota's season has been a rollercoaster, but it's important to note that this team has made back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances.
The Wolves still profile as a title contender, ranking seventh in the league in net rating, but they are just 12-13 against teams that are .500 or better this season.
9. Houston Rockets (+2200)
Houston's crunch time offense is just 21st in the NBA, which could be a major issue in the playoffs. The loss of Steven Adams has also impacted the Rockets' dominance on the glass, making them more of a fringe title contender in the West.
10. Philadelphia 76ers (+4000)
The 76ers have an intriguing ceiling if Joel Embiid stays healthy since Tyrese Maxey has played at an All-NBA level all season long.
Philly is 11th in the odds to win the title, but it has the star power to pull off an upset or two in the East.
11. Los Angeles Lakers (+3500)
The Lakers have a negative net rating this season thanks to their bottom-10 defense.
Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves and LeBron James form a scary trio on offense, but it's not going to be enough to get through the gauntlet that is the Western Conference unless the defense completely turns around.
12. Toronto Raptors (+25000)
Toronto appears to have a top-six spot in the East locked up, and it ranks sixth in the NBA in defensive rating. This is a quality team, but it is a step below the top four teams in the East.
13. Charlotte Hornets (+20000)
Charlotte is one of the hottest teams in the NBA, ranking fifth in the league in net rating over its last 15 games. The current No. 9-seed in the East, the Hornets may end up in the playoffs without the play-in tournament, as they're just 4.5 games out of the No. 6 seed.
14. Orlando Magic (+12000)
Orlando has been a disappointment this season, sitting in the No. 7 spot in the East at the All-Star break. Unless the offense (19th in offensive rating, 25th in eFG%) improves, the Magic aren't a title contender this season -- and the odds reflect that.
15. Phoenix Suns (+25000)
Phoenix is in play for a top-six seed in the West, shattering preseason expectations. The Suns defend at a high level (10th in defensive rating), but they may not have enough offense after Devin Booker to actually win a playoff series.
16. Golden State Warriors (+12000)
The Warriors' season is hanging by a thread, and unless Steph Curry (knee) returns at peak form after the All-Star break, Golden State is nothing more than a fringe playoff team.
17. Los Angeles Clippers (+40000)
The Clippers started the season 6-21, but they've won 20 of their last 27 games. The team also traded James Harden and Ivica Zubac at the deadline, lowering its ceiling this season.
Despite that, Kawhi Leonard is playing at an All-NBA level and may end up willing this team into the playoffs in the West.
18. Miami Heat (+20000)
Miami is on track for another play-in season, and it's fallen off a big after a 13-6 start. The Heat are just two games over .500 at the All-Star break.
19. Portland Trail Blazers (+150000)
Portland appears to be a lock for a play-in spot in the West, but it may not have the firepower on offense to accomplish much more than that. The Blazers are just 21st in offensive rating this season.
20. Milwaukee Bucks (+100000)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) could end up returning and getting the Bucks into the play-in tournament, but Milwaukee needs to land a top pick in the draft (it will get the worst of its pick or New Orleans' pick) to truly have a chance to contend with the two-time MVP.
21. Atlanta Hawks (+60000)
The Hawks are clinging to a play-in spot and nothing more after ending the Trae Young era earlier this season.
22. Dallas Mavericks (+200000)
Dallas could end up going in the tank down the stretch of the regular season, but Cooper Flagg is a clear franchise-altering player that should help it compete in the future.
23. Chicago Bulls (+250000)
Chicago blew up its team at the trade deadline, but it still is in the mix for a play-in spot in the East ... for now.
24. Memphis Grizzlies (+300000)
Memphis has moved on from Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. in less than a year, giving it the ammo to rebuild around youngsters like Cedric Coward.
25. Utah Jazz (+400000)
The Jazz actually have some intriguing pieces, but they have been tanking egregiously in recent weeks and have now shut down Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) for the rest of the season.
26. New Orleans Pelicans (+400000)
New Orleans doesn't have a reason to tank since it doesn't own its draft pick, so it may end up finishing higher in the standings than it's current position.
27. Washington Wizards (+500000)
The Wizards made two big deadline trades for Anthony Davis and Trae Young, but both players may not even suit up for the team this season as Washington eyes a top draft pick.
28. Brooklyn Nets (+500000)
Brooklyn's path has been set up to tank all season long, and it could end up with the worst record in the East if it continues to sit Michael Porter Jr.
29. Indiana Pacers (+500000)
It's a gap year for the Pacers without Tyrese Haliburton, and it may end up with them getting the top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
30. Sacramento Kings (+500000)
The Kings didn't set out to tank this season, but they simply don't have a competitive roster and lack tradable assets going forward.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.
Follow @peterdewey2