New Mexico vs. San Diego State Prediction, Odds and Best College Basketball Prop Bets for Tuesday, Feb. 25

The New Mexico Lobos – the No. 1 team in the Mountain West – are looking to extend their lead atop the conference on Tuesday night when they hit the road to play the San Diego State Aztecs.

San Diego State enters this game at 18-7 (11-5 in Mountain West play), and is the No. 43 team in the latest rankings from KenPom.

While the Aztecs likely aren’t going to catch New Mexico in the regular season, this could be a preview of a Mountain West Conference Tournament matchup in March.

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Tuesday’s contest.

New Mexico vs. San Diego State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

New Mexico +2.5 (-115)
San Diego State -2.5 (-105)

Moneyline

New Mexico: +120
San Diego State: -142

Total

144.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

New Mexico vs. San Diego State How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Feb. 25
Time: 11:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Viejas Arena
How to Watch (TV): FS1
New Mexico State record: 22-5
San Diego State record: 18-7

New Mexico vs. San Diego Best College Basketball Prop Bets

New Mexico

Donovan Dent 18+ Points (-125)

I love getting Dent – the leading scorer in the Mountain West – at this number since he’s averaging 19.6 points on a team-high 14.3 shots per game. Dent has hit this prop in six of his last eight games, and while the Aztecs are an elite defense, he still had 16 points on 6-of-12 shooting against them earlier this season.

New Mexico scored just 62 points in that game, so a slight uptick from one of the nation’s best offenses should help Dent clear this prop.

San Diego State

Magoon Gwath

I don’t have a prop for the Aztecs on Tuesday night, but big man Magoon Gwath is a player to watch in this one. He leads the Mountain West with 2.6 blocks per game, and he was very disruptive the last time these teams played, picking up six points, three boards and four blocks in just 29 minutes.

New Mexico vs. San Diego Prediction and Pick

This is an interesting matchup when it comes to the total, as the Lobos ranks fourth in the country in adjusted tempo, but they are still No. 26 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

As we’ve come to expect with this San Diego State squad, it defends at a high level under head coach Brian Dutcher. The Aztecs are No. 10 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they’ve hit the UNDER in half of their games this season.

Both of these teams are exactly .500 when it comes to the hitting the UNDER. However, when New Mexico has been set as a road underdog, the UNDER is 3-1.

That’s where I’m leaning on Tuesday night, as the first matchup between these teams finished with just 110 combined points (New Mexico won 62-48).

The Aztecs simply don’t have a ton of juice on offense – they rank 261st in the country in points per game and 224th in field goal percentage – but they are 13th in opponent points per game.

While Richard Pitino’s New Mexico squad can get out and run – it averages 83.0 points per game – the Aztecs are going to attempt to slow them down, as they rank 255th in the country in adjusted tempo.

This total is a little too high given how low-scoring this matchup when New Mexico was at home earlier in the season.

Pick: UNDER 144.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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