New Orleans vs. Stephen F. Austin Prediction, Odds for College Basketball on Monday, Feb. 23

The top team in the Southland Conference – the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks – is looking to add to its 25-3 record against a surging New Orleans Privateers squad on Monday night.

New Orleans is a double-digit underdog in this matchup, but it has jumped to fourth in the Southland Conference standings, winning back-to-back games to improve to 11-8 in conference play.

These teams met already back on Jan. 17, but New Orleans hung around at home, losing by just five points to the Lumberjacks. Stephen F. Austin enters this game with just one loss in conference play, and it’s won 13 straight.

The Lumberjacks appear to be a lock to make the NCAA Tournament, although they’ll need to win the conference tournament to make that happen. Can New Orleans prove that it’s a threat to take that bid?

The Privateers have won six of eight since a loss to No. 2 McNeese, but Stephen F. Austin is undefeated at home.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a key player to watch and my prediction for this Southland Conference showdown.

New Orleans vs. Stephen F. Austin Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

New Orleans +12.5 (-108)
Stephen F. Austin -12.5 (-112)

Moneyline

New Orleans: +650
Stephen F. Austin: -1000

Total

150.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

New Orleans vs. Stephen F. Austin How to Watch

Date: Monday, Feb. 23
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: William R. Johnson Coliseum
How to Watch (TV): ESPN+
New Orleans record: 13-15
Stephen F. Austin record: 25-3

New Orleans vs. Stephen F. Austin Key Player to Watch

Lateef Patrick, Guard, Stephen F. Austin

A junior guard, Lateef Patrick lit up this New Orleans team in their first meeting, dropping 29 points on 9-of-20 shooting to go with six rebounds and three steals.

He’s the second-leading scorer for the Lumberjacks this season, averaging 15.1 points, 2.9 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game while shooting 39.7 percent from the field and 33.5 percent from the field.

While Patrick isn’t the most efficient scorer, it’ll be interesting to see how New Orleans handles him and Keon Thompson (18.3 points per game), as they have formed one of the best guard duos in the country.

New Orleans vs. Stephen F. Austin Prediction and Pick

The Privateers hung around in the first meeting between these teams, but facing the Lumberjacks at home has been a tough task for everyone in the 2025-26 campaign.

Stephen F. Austin is 15-0 at home and 8-3 against the spread when favored, posting an average scoring margin of +15.5 points in those 15 games.

So, New Orleans is going to have to play some of its best basketball to pull off an upset on Monday night.

The Lumberjacks are a top-100 team in KenPom’s latest rankings, well above New Orleans (No. 188), which is just 235th in the country in defensive rating. The Lumberjacks have a top-100 defense this season, ranking 24th in opponent effective field goal percentage.

They also don’t turn the ball over, ranking 33rd in turnover rate. The Privateers can’t say the same, as they are 350th in turnover percentage. While New Orleans is 58th in adjusted tempo, which could contribute to the turnovers, it simply won’t cut it against an elite Lumberjacks defense.

These teams were tied at half the last time they played, but New Orleans shot 51 percent from the field and 41 percent from 3 and still lost. I think things will be a lot tougher on the road against the No. 1 team in the conference.

Pick: Stephen F. Austin -12.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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