NFL Contract Incentives in Week 18: How to Bet Sam Darnold, Rico Dowdle and More in Player Prop Market

Iain MacMillan | 19 Hours Ago

Sam Darnold can cash in on some contract incentives with a big Week 18 performance against the 49ers. / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Week 18 of the NFL season is here, and with the final slate of action always bringing uncertainty and chaos, one of the methods that's popular amongst bettors is to target certain players who have contract incentives to post certain stats in their last game of the 2025 campaign.

In this article, we're going to look at some players who have contract incentives on the line and how you can bet on them to cash in on their bonus pay. Before we get into them, I do want to remind my readers that these contract incentives are public knowledge and have already been baked into the betting lines. You're not getting any kind of edge on the sportsbooks by using this method, as they've already adjusted the odds to reflect the likelihood of these players reaching their milestones.

Even with that being the case, sometimes it's just fun to bet on season-ending contract incentives, so let's take a look at a few we can target this weekend.

NFL Week 18 Contract Incentive Bets

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Rico Dowdle Anytime TD (+125)
• Sam Darnold 150+ Passing Yards (-1400)
• Sam Darnold 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+310)
• Tony Pollard OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
• Tony Pollard 2+ Touchdowns (+1300)
• Marquise Brown Anytime Touchdown (+340)

Rico Dowdle Contract Incentives

• Rico Dowdle Anytime TD (+125)

Unless something crazy happens, Rico Dowdle will automatically cash in on a $1M incentive by being on the active roster for this game, but he can cash in on an additional $250k if he's able to score one more touchdown. He's +125 to find the end zone on Saturday afternoon when the Panthers try to lock up the NFC South with a win against the Buccaneers.

Sam Darnold Contract Incentives

• Sam Darnold 150+ Passing Yards (-1400)
• Sam Darnold 3+ Passing Touchdowns (+310)

There is a ton on the line for Sam Darnold on Saturday night when the Seahawks face the 49ers. The NFC West title, the No. 1 seed in the conference, and up to $1M in in contract incentives. He will receive $500k if he surpasses 4,000 yards on the season, and he's currently 150 yards away at 3,850. He will also cash in on an additional $500k if he's able to record 28 passing touchdowns. He's at 25 entering this game.

You won't get much of a return betting on Darnold to record 150+ yards through the air, just $100 on a $1,400 bet, but you could cash in on him recording 3+ passing touchdowns at +310. He has only had three games all season where he's thrown for 3+ touchdowns.

Tony Pollard Contract Incentives

• Tony Pollard OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
• Tony Pollard 2+ Touchdowns (+1300)

The Tennessee Titans have little to play for when they take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 18, but Tony Pollard will certainly bring his "A" game. He has $250k bonuses attached to gaining 1,100 rushing yards this season and scoring seven touchdowns. He currently sits at 1,034 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

FanDuel has his rushing yards total set at one yard higher than what he needs at 67.5. You can alternatively just bet him to 60+ rushing yards at -180 or 70+ rushing yards at -102. If you want a longshot bet, you can wager on him to score 2+ touchdowns at 13-1 to cash in on his touchdowns incentive, but that could be difficult against the Jaguars' defense.

Marquise Brown Contract Incentive

• Marquise Brown Anytime Touchdown (+340)

No one in the Chiefs vs. Raiders game may care more about what happens in it than Chiefs' wide receiver Marquise Brown. He will cash in on a whopping $750k contract incentive if he can record a sixth touchdown this season. Unfortunately for him, he won't have Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball. He'll have to rely on Chris Oladokun throwing him the ball. You can bet on Hollywood Brown finding the end zone on Sunday at +340.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!