NFL Divisional Round Best Bets (Predictions for Rams vs. Bears, Texans vs. Patriots)

A trip to the AFC or NFC Championship is on the line for every NFL team still alive in the playoffs this weekennd, and there are some intriguing lines to bet.

Here's a quick look at the slate, and the odds, for each divisional round contest:

Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos (Denver -1.5)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (Seattle -7)
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots (Patriots -3)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears (Los Angeles -3.5)

Each week, SI’s Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan share their favorite bets for Sunday’s games every week, and after four weeks in a row in the regular season where we hit every bet, we fell short with losses on the Jacksonville Jaguars and Green Bay Packers in the wild card round.

Luckily, the divisional round gives us a chance to turn things around, as there are still seven playoff games left in the NFL season.

This week, we're eyeing a pair of underdogs to cover with a spot in the AFC or NFC Championship Game on the line.

Here's a breakdown for each of these picks, and their latest odds, for the second round of playoff action this NFL season.

NFL Best Bets for Divisional Round

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.

Chicago Bears 3.5 (-102) vs. Los Angeles Rams – Peter Dewey
Houston Texans +3 (-105) vs. New England Patriots – Iain MacMillan

Chicago Bears 3.5 (-102) vs. Los Angeles Rams – Peter Dewey

The Bears are the second-biggest underdog in the divisional round, but I’m buying them at home, where they are 7-2 this season (including playoffs). Chicago has covered the spread in both of its games as a home underdog this season, including the wild card round win over Green Bay.

Caleb Williams stepped up and made a ton of big throws in the fourth quarter against the Packers, and I think this Rams defense is beatable through the air after Bryce Young threw for 264 yards in the wild card round.

A month ago, the Rams would have been my pick to win the Super Bowl, but they have looked extremely vulnerable defensively in recent weeks, losing to Atlanta, Seattle and nearly losing to Carolina.

I think the Bears are getting a little disrespected at home, and I think getting them with the hook is a pretty solid value considering how many close games Chicago has played in the 2025 campaign.

Houston Texans +3 (-105) vs. New England Patriots – Iain MacMillan

The Houston Texans' defense is good enough to lead them all the way to a Super Bowl, ranking second in the NFL in DVOA, opponent EPA, and opponent success rate.

Their offense has struggled against good defenses themselves, but now they face a New England Patriots' defense that's in the bottom 10 in a lot of categories.

Despite beating the Los Angeles Chargers last week, the Patriots' offense struggled against one of the best defenses they've faced all season.

Now they face an even better defense in the Texans. They may be able to squeak out a win, but I'll take the side with the best defense in football that's getting three points.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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