NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes, Matthew Stafford Rising, Josh Allen Heavily Favored

Breaking down the latest NFL MVP odds after Sunday's action in Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is now +1800 to win the MVP. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

A couple of veteran quarterbacks made major moves in the latest odds to win the NFL MVP award this season, as Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford both led their teams to wins and are in the top-10 in the latest odds.

Mahomes jumped up from +1600 to +1000 after throwing for four scores in a win over the Baltimore Ravens, and Stafford jumped from +2500 to +1800 after moving the Los Angeles Rams to 3-1 with a huge game against the Indianapolis Colts.

Despite that, the MVP race already has a very clear favorite through four weeks: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen.

With Lamar Jackson suffering a hamstring injury in Week 4, Allen broke the back-and-forth the two stars have had atop this market. Allen is now +110 to win the MVP with the Bills sitting at 4-0 and in the driver's seat for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

That means there is very little value in betting on Allen at this point in the season, and while he's combined for 10 total touchdowns in 2025, he's not exactly dominating the rest of the competition statistically.

So, is there value in another candidate with Week 5 on the horizon?

Here's a look at the latest odds and some players to monitor in this market going forward.

NFL MVP Odds for 2025 Season 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• Josh Allen: +110
• Lamar Jackson: +650
• Justin Herbert: +700
• Patrick Mahomes: +1000
• Jalen Hurts: +1300
• Jordan Love: +1600
• Baker Mayfield: +1800
• Matthew Stafford: +1800
• Jayden Daniels: +2500
• Jared Goff: +3000
• Aaron Rodgers: +4500
• Daniel Jones: +5000
• Dak Prescott: +6000
• Trevor Lawrence: +7500
• Brock Purdy: +7500
• Sam Darnold: +7500
• Kyler Murray: +8000

Josh Allen Heavily Favored to Win Back-to-Back MVPs

Allen had a strong game in a win over the New Orleans Saints in Week 4, throwing for 209 yards and two scores while adding another 45 yards on the ground and a rushing touchdown. Allen is averaging over 241 passing yards per game, and his passer rating is up from his MVP season in 2024.

Still, the biggest notch in Allen's belt seems to be the Bills' 4-0 record, as they already have a win over the Ravens under their belt and they're in a prime spot to win the AFC after the Los Angeles Chargers dropped their Week 4 matchup to the New York Giants.

Allen moving to +110 makes sense, but it doesn't offer any value for bettors this early in the season.

Patrick Mahomes Jumps Up in NFL MVP Odds After Week 4

So, maybe the Kansas City Chiefs can still contend? After some had written off KC through two weeks, Patrick Mahomes has led them to back-to-back wins, throwing for four scores in Week 4 against the Ravens.

Mahomes now has the same touchdown-to-interception ratio as Allen (7-to-1), and he's added two scores on the ground in 2025. As Kansas City gets more weapons back (Xavier Worthy returned in Week 4 and Rashee Rice returns in Week 7), this offense may end up being more explosive than initially expected in 2025.

There's certainly a narrative building in Mahomes' favor if he can drag the Chiefs from an 0-2 start to contention for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Matthew Stafford Undervalued in NFL MVP Odds?

I think Los Angeles Rams' quarterback Matthew Stafford may be the best value in this market, as he has a passer rating of 106.1 (well ahead of Mahomes and just behind Allen) and has thrown eight scores in four games.

The Rams are 3-1 with their only loss coming to the undefeated Eagles, and L.A. has a chance to take control of the NFC West with a win over a banged-up San Francisco 49ers team on Thursday night in Week 5.

Stafford may not put up the rushing numbers that Allen, Jackson or even Mahomes do, but he's been one of the best passers in the NFL in 2025. With Puka Nacua and Davante Adams healthy, it's hard not to be high on the Rams' passing attack this season.

Lamar Jackson Injury Impacts NFL MVP Odds

Jackson left Week 4 againt the Chiefs with a hamstring injury, and his MVP odds have taken a hit in the process.

The star quarterback is now +650 to win MVP after entering Week 3 at +275, and it's possible his odds could fall even further if he's forced to miss a game or two.

With the Ravens sitting at 1-3, Jackson is a risky bet to win MVP, especially since he has head-to-head losses to other contending quarterbacks like Allen, Mahomes and Jared Goff.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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