NFL MVP Odds: Sam Darnold Remains Major Long Shot Despite Clinching No. 1 Seed in NFC

Sam Darnold is no among the top contenders for the NFL MVP award.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold is +40000 to win the MVP. / Neville E. Guard-Imagn Images

Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC on Saturday night, winning a low-scoring game over the San Francisco 49ers to finish the regular season with a 14-3 record.

Darnold, who had a great season in 2024 with the Minnesota Vikings, made an immediate impact in Seattle, leading the team to its first division title since the 2020 season. Despite that, the former first-round pick is not a true contender for the league's MVP award this season.

Entering Sunday's action in Week 18, the MVP is a true two-man race. New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (-270) is the odds-on favorite while Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (+210) is the only other player with shorter than +20000 odds to win MVP.

Stafford's MVP case took a major hit after Week 17, as the Rams were upset by the Atlanta Falcons and he threw multiple interceptions in the game. While the veteran leads the NFL in touchdown passes, the Rams are guranteed to be a wild card team since Darnold and the Seahawks won the NFC West.

So, it seems like Maye will run away with the MVP -- at least based on the latest odds -- in just his second NFL season. The Patriots could lock up a top-two seed in the AFC with a win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 18.

As for Darnold, it's interesting that he's just +40000 to win MVP despite winning the NFC West and the No. 1 seed in the conference. The Seahawks quarterback has thrown for 4,048 yards, 25 touchdowns and 14 picks this season while completing 67.7 percent of his passes.

While those numbers aren't nearly as good as the ones we've seen from Maye or Stafford, Darnold did take a team that missed the playoffs last season to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That is deserving of at least some MVP consideration, even though he should not be the favorite. At +40000, Darnold essentially has not shot to win this award.

Here's a look at where the NFL MVP odds stand ahead of the final Sunday of regular season games in the 2025 campaign.

Latest Odds to Win NFL MVP

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Drake Maye: -270
• Matthew Stafford: +210
• Trevor Lawrence: +20000
• Caleb Williams: +25000
• Josh Allen: +30000
• Sam Darnold: +40000
• Bo Nix: +40000
• Christian McCaffrey: +50000
• CJ Stroud: +50000
• Justin Herbert: +50000
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +50000
• Jalen Hurts: +50000
• Baker Mayfield: +100000

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.