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NFL Playoff Odds: Broncos Heavily Favored to Earn No. 1 Seed After Win vs. Chiefs)
It wasn't pretty, but Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos knocked off the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas night, moving to 13-3 in the 2025 season.
Denver has complete control over getting the No. 1 seed in the AFC, as it simply needs to beat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18 to secure the top spot in the conference. The New England Patriots (12-3 ahead of Sunday's matchup with the New York Jets) could finish with the same record as Denver, but the Broncos hold the tiebreaker over them this season for wins over common opponents.
Outside of New England, the Jacksonville Jaguars (+1200), Chargers (+3000) and Buffalo Bills (+4500) are the other teams alive for the No. 1 seed with a ton of matchups still left in Week 17. Jacksonville and Los Angeles both have head-to-head wins over Denver, but they are also a game back of the Broncos in the standngs.
The Chargers would win the AFC West -- and potentially get the No. 1 seed -- if they simply win out, since they'd be 2-0 against Denver this season. So, there could be some value in them at +3000, even though they have a tough game against Houston on Saturday.
New England, which plays New York and the Miami Dolphins to close the regular season, has an easy path to 14-3, but it now needs a Denver loss in Week 18 to clinch the No. 1 seed. So, everyone trailing the Broncos is dependent on a Chargers win next week to have a shot at the bye in the AFC.
Denver is just 2-9 against the spread when favored this season, but it has won a ton of close games to remain in the mix for the best record in the NFL. The Broncos' losses this season have come against Indianapolis, the Chargers and Jacksonville, with two of them coming on last-second field goals.
At -175, the Broncos have an implied probability of 63.64 percent to win the AFC this season. That could jump if L.A., New England or Jacksonville loses in Week 17.
Here's a quick look at the odds for the No. 1 spot in the AFC now that five teams have clinched a spot in the playoffs in that conference.
Odds to Earn No. 1 Seed in the AFC
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Denver Broncos: -175
- New England Patriots: +190
- Jacksonville Jaguars: +1200
- Los Angeles Chargers: +3000
- Buffalo Bills: +4500
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.