NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds Ahead of AFC, NFC Championship Games

And then, there were four.

The stage is set for the AFC and NFC title games, and three of the four top seeds in the NFL have advanced. The lone dark horse? Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders, who pulled off an insane upset of the Detroit Lions on Saturday night.

Daniels and the Commanders have now won back-to-back games as underdogs after no rookie quarterback had done it in the last 10 years (0-6 straight up) prior to their wild card round win over Tampa Bay.

They'll face the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC title game after Saquon Barkle carried Philly in a snow game against the Los Angeles Rams. Los Angeles had a chance to win the game late, but back-to-back key pressures from Jalen Carter forced a turnover on downs -- sealing the win for Jalen Hurts and the Eagles.

Philly is looking to return to the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons, and it enters the NFC title game as a 4.5-point favorite in the latest odds.

In the AFC, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs' quest for a three-peat (they'd be the first team in NFL history to ever complete such a feat) is alive and well.

KC knocked off the Houston Texans on Saturday night, and now it is favored in the AFC title game -- although it is not the favorite overall to win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs will face a famililar opponent -- Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills -- after Buffalo outlasted the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday thanks to plenty of Baltimore turnovers and miscues.

Allen and the Bills could be in trouble in the injury department as Taron Johnson and Taylor Rapp -- two key members of the secondary -- went down with injuries on Sunday. Oddsmakers have set Kansas City as a slight favorite against the Bills, but Buffalo won the meeting between the teams in the regular season.

So, what does this all set up?

A can't-miss championship weekend.

Using the latest Super Bowl odds, I'm power ranking the final four teams (as I've done all season) based on their chances to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Let's dive in.

NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (+240) Last Week: No. 1

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

I've said this all postseason: Until someone knocks off the Chiefs, they are going to be No. 1.

That's the benefit of the doubt you get as a back-to-back Super Bowl champion. The Chiefs and Bills have a ton of playoff history against each other, but Kansas City (if it remains favored) should benefit from the fact that Josh Allen is 0-3 straight up as a road dog in his playoff career.

While Patrick Mahomes wasn't dominant on Saturday, the Chiefs are a well-oiled machine that has been playing elite defense in the 2024 season.

I'd assume they'd be the favorite in a Super Bowl matchup, so if you think they beat the Bills, this is a great price to nab K.C. at before the AFC title game.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (+175) LW: No. 5

Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter. | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

Credit to the Eagles' defense, as it came up with turnover after turnover on Sunday to secure a win over the Rams and advance to a second NFC title game in three seasons.

Jalen Hurts was dinged up on Sunday, but oddsmakers clearly view Philly as the superior team to Washington, setting it as the favorite to win the Super Bowl.

Philly did lose to Washington (in a game that Hurts left early with a concussion) during the regular season. It's worth noting that Hurts has never lost a home playoff game in his NFL career.

3. Buffalo Bills (+270) LW: No. 4

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Is this finally the year that the Bills get over the hump?

Oddsmakers have set them as just 1.5-point underdogs to win the AFC title game, and Allen and company did beat the Chiefs in the regular season. Allen's playoff record as an underdog (1-3, 0-3 on the road) is concerning, but the Bills did technically upset the Ravens on Sunday.

Buffalo's defense will need to be opportunistic once again to end the Chiefs' reign of terror in the AFC.

4. Washington Commanders (+650) LW: No. 7

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels. | Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Will the shoe still fit for the Commanders come next weekend?

A potent offensive attack led by Daniels has been enough to reach the NFC title game, but winning three games as an underdog -- all on the road -- is an extremely tough task.

There is familiarity between the Commanders and Eagles from their regular season matchups, and Washington is 4-2-1 against the spread as a road dog this season.

Oddsmakers have the Commanders priced as a distant fourth in this market, which does give them some value if you think the underdog is destined to reach Super Bowl LIX.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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