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NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds Ahead of Week 17 (Seahawks, Jags, Bears Make Statements)
Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season was all about potential contenders making a statement, and three teams did that better than anyone.
The Seattle Seahawks kicked off the week with a come-from-behind statement win over the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night, taking over the No. 1 seed in the NFC in the process. Seattle now controls its own destiny down the stretch of the regular season, although it does have some tough games remaining.
Then, on Saturday night, Caleb Williams and the Bears had their own comeback story, winning on a walk-off touchdown in overtime on a dime from Williams to DJ Moore. The win kept the Bears in the No. 2 spot in the NFC, and they're in the driver's seat to win the NFC North this season. Both the Seahawks and Bears are rising in the odds to win the NFC and the Super Bowl.
Finally, on Sunday, the Jacksonville Jaguars had the statement win of the day in the AFC, torching the Denver defense to put themselves in the conversation for the No. 1 seed in the conference. Denver basically needs to win out to hang on to the top spot with both Jacksonville and New England capable of passing it in the final two weeks. The Jaguars are now amongst the top contenders in the odds to win the Super Bowl.
Those weren't the only teams to pick up a big win, as the Carolina Panthers won as home underdogs in their NFC South battle against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, taking the top spot in the division with just two games to play.
Several teams have clinched playoff spots (Denver, New England, Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago, Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia) at this point in the season, leaving fewer and fewer chances for the few teams that haven't been eliminated yet to sneak into the postseason picture.
Each week I'll be power ranking every NFL team based on the odds to win the Super Bowl in the 2025 season. Here's a look at who is up and who is down after Sunday's Week 16 action.
NFL Power Rankings Based on Super Bowl Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
1. Seattle Seahawks (+500) LW: No. 4
Sam Darnold finally did it. He and the Seahawks erased a huge deficit to beat the Rams in overtime on Thursday night, taking over first place in the NFC and the NFC West.
Darnold answered a lot of questions about his play in big games, and Seattle remains second in the odds to win the Super Bowl, going from +600 to +500.
2. Los Angeles Rams (+400) LW: No. 1
I'm not moving the Rams down too far, even though they fell out of the No. 1 seed in Thursday's loss to Seattle.
Los Angeles is still the favorite to win the Super Bowl and it could re-take the No. 1 spot over the final two weeks of the regular season. I trust Matthew Stafford more than a lot of the other quarterbacks on the top seeds in the NFL.
3. Buffalo Bills (+850) LW: No. 3
The Bills held off the Browns to move to 11-4, and they remain in the mix to win the AFC East with just two games to play.
Buffalo moved from +900 to +850 to win the Super Bowl after Sunday's win.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (+1000) LW: No. 6
The Eagles have clinched the NFC East, and they're starting to get hot on offense at the right time. Philly has moved back to 10/1 to win the Super Bowl, good for the fifth-best odds in the league.
5. New England Patriots (+1000) LW: No. 5
The Patriots have jumped from +1400 to +1000 to win the Super Bowl after clinching a playoff spot, and they could win the AFC if Denver loses again this season.
Drake Maye is a bonafide MVP candidate, and this team rebounded nicely from a tough loss to Buffalo in Week 15.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (+1200) LW: No. 7
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are officially in play for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, as they dominated the Denver defense in Week 16.
Jacksonville's offense has been rolling in recent weeks, making it a dangerous team in a wide open AFC. The Jags went from +1600 to +1200 to win the Super Bowl after Sunday's win.
7. Denver Broncos (+850) LW: No. 2
Denver still holds the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but it may have to win out against Los Angeles and Kansas City to hold on after a loss to Jacksonville.
The Denver defense was torched on Sunday, a major concern as the Broncos have slowing been backing up in EPA/Play on the defensive side the last few weeks. The Broncos' dropped to +850 to win the Super Bowl after Sunday's loss.
8. Chicago Bears (+2000) LW: No. 10
The Bears pulled off one of the most improbable wins of the season, erasing a double-digit deficit in the second half to knock off the Packers and take control of the NFC North.
The No. 2 seed, Caleb Williams and the Bears are up to +2000 to win the Super Bowl and are in a great spot to end up with at least one home playoff game this season.
9. San Francisco 49ers (+2000) LW: No. 9
The 49ers are looking to improve their playoff standing in the NFC as road favorites against the Colts on Monday night.
10. Los Angeles Chargers (+2000) LW: No. 12
The Chargers hung 34 points on Dallas in Week 16, and they've won four games in a row with huge games against Houston and Denver left on the schedule this season.
11. Houston Texans (+1500) LW: No. 11
Houston was able to hold on to beat the Raiders in Week 16, keeping it in the No. 7 spot in the AFC no matter what happens on Monday night with the Colts.
Houston did fall from +1100 to +1500 to win the Super Bowl on Sunday with other AFC contenders winning.
12. Green Bay Packers (+1600) LW: No. 9
The Packers are falling in the latest Super Bowl odds, going to +1600 after losing to Chicago in Week 16. The Packers are now facing an uphill battle to win the NFC North, and they lost Jordan Love to a concussion on Saturday.
There's a chance Green Bay could miss the playoffs in the NFC.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (+4000) LW: No. 14
The Steelers clinched another over .500 season for Mike Tomlin, winning a wild game against the Lions on Sunday afternoon.
Pittsburgh remains in first place in the AFC North, and it moved up in a big way in the Super Bowl odds, going from +7500 to +4000 ahead of Week 17.
14. Carolina Panthers (+15000) LW: No. 17
The Panthers are now alone in first place in the NFC South after upsetting Tampa Bay on Sunday as three-point underdogs. Carolina is now +15000 to win the Super Bowl, up from +25000 a week ago.
Carolina controls its own destiny to win the NFC South this season.
15. Baltimore Ravens (+8000) LW: No. 15
The Ravens no longer control their destiny to make the playoffs, as a loss or a Steelers win ends their season.
Baltimore also lost Lamar Jackson (back) to yet another injury on Sunday night. As a result, the Ravens have gone from +2200 to +8000 to win the Super Bowl this season.
16. Detroit Lions (+13000) Last Week: No. 13
A loss to Pittsburgh in Week 16 has pushed the Lions to the brink, as they need to win out and get some help to make the playoffs this season.
Detroit fell from +3000 to +13000 to win the Super Bowl after the loss.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8000) LW: No. 16
The Buccaneers came up short on Sunday in a huge NFC South matchup with Carolina, as Baker Mayfield was picked on the team's final drive.
Tampa Bay is now under .500 and +8000 to win the Super Bowl as it likely needs to win out to win the NFC South.
18. Indianapolis Colts (+80000) LW: No. 18
Philip Rivers and the Colts have a huge matchup with the 49ers on Monday night if they want a real shot to make the playoffs.
19. Dallas Cowboys (N/A) LW: No. 19
Dallas has lost three games in a row and is officially eliminated from playoff contention after Philly beat the Commanders on Saturday.
The Cowboys' defense was not good enough to win anything this season, but the team wilted after a huge Thanksgiving Day win over Kansas City. It'll be interesting to see how Jerry Jones attempts to improve this roster in the offseason.
20. New Orleans Saints (N/A) LW: No. 23
Another week, another Chris Olave touchdown and another impressive Saints win. New Orleans blew out the Jets, and it's now 5-10 this season after winning three in a row.
New Orleans may have something in Tyler Shough going into the 2026 season.
21. Minnesota Vikings (N/A) LW: No. 22
J.J. McCarthy was injured again on Sunday, but the Vikings held off the Giants in an ugly, low-scoring game.
McCarthy had played well the last two weeks, but there's a lot to worry about when it comes to his future as the franchise quarterback.
22. Kansas City Chiefs (N/A) LW: No. 21
A nightmare season for the Chiefs has gotten worse, as Gardner Minshew is feared to have torn his ACL in his first start for Patrick Mahomes (also suffered a torn ACL).
KC's 2026 will be in flux depending upon Mahomes' recovery status.
23. Cincinnati Bengals (N/A) LW: No. 24
Joe Burrow bounced back in a big way from a shutout loss to the Ravens, dominating the Dolphins in a 45-21 win.
The Cincy offense has been good when Burrow has been under center (for the most part), but this franchise won't contend again until it makes some investment on the other side of the ball.
24. Miami Dolphins (N/A) LW: No. 20
It appears Mike McDaniel will be back in 2026, but the Dolphins appear set to move on from Tua Tagovailoa. Quinn Ewers didn't do enough in his NFL debut to really warrant consideration next season, as Miami was blown out by the Bengals.
This quarterback situation will be one to watch in the offseason.
25. Atlanta Falcons (N/A) LW: No. 25
The Falcons can't make the playoffs, but they're now 6-9 this season and have looked decent with Kirk Cousins under center. The problem? Atlanta has a win-now type of team, and it was basically out of the playff mix four to five weeks ago.
It'll be interesting to see what this roster looks like in 2026.
26. Washington Commanders (N/A) LW: No. 26
The Commanders are coasting the rest of the season wth Jayden Daniels ruled out, and a loss to the Eagles in Week 16 was expected. Washington needs to re-tool in the offseason to give Daniels a chance to bring it back to the playoffs in 2026.
27. Arizona Cardinals (N/A) LW: No. 27
Another game where Jacoby Brissett moved the Arizona offense, but ultimately it ends in a loss where the Cardinals come up short in the fourth quarter.
Arizona has not won since Brissett was named the starter over Kyler Murray, but this was a lost season anyway.
28. Cleveland Browns (N/A) LW: No. 29
Cleveland made the Bills sweat on Sunday, but it ultimately came up short in the fourth quarter. The big blow for the Browns was a major leg injury to Quinshon Judkins, and if he tore anything in his knee, he could miss the start of the 2026 season.
29. Tennessee Titans (N/A) LW: No. 31
Cam Ward and the Titans picked up their third win of the season on Sunday, knocking off a short-handed Kansas City team. The Titans have shown some improvement on offense in recent weeks, a good sign for Ward as he hopes for a big second NFL season in 2026.
30. New York Jets (N/A) LW: No. 28
Week 16 was a rough one for the Jets, who were blown out by the Saints to fall to 3-12 in the 2025 season. The Jets' season has been over since they started 0-7, and the offense needs a complete overhaul -- outside of Garrett Wilson -- in the offseason.
31. New York Giants (N/A) LW: No. 30
Week 16 was a nightmare for Jaxson Dart, as he completed just 53.8 percent of his passes for 33 yards and a pick in a loss to Minnesota.
This season has been a lost one for the Giants, who need Dart to be the quarterback of the future if they want to jump start their rebuild in the offseason.
32. Las Vegas Raiders (N/A) LW: No. 32
Could Pete Carroll be one and down in Las Vegas? The Raiders have won just one game since Week 1, and their offense has been inept for most of the season.
The bright side? Ashton Jeanty had by far his best game of the season in Week 16, finding the end zone twice and totaling well over 100 rushing yards.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Peter is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun and the Meriden Record-Journal covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks.