NFL Upset Predictions and Picks for Week 18 (Can Jets Hand Bills Another Loss?)

Iain MacMillan | 2 Hours Ago

The Jets are +260 underdogs against the Bills in Week 18. / Cook: Yannick Peterhans / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images, Allen: Kathryn Riley/Getty Images

All three SI panelists who submitted an upset pick for Week 17 cashed in. Matt Verderame correctly predicted the Houston Texans to take down the Los Angeles Chargers as underdogs, and both Iain MacMillan and Peter Dewey won on the Philadelphia Eagles at +118 against the Buffalo Bills.

It's time to look ahead to the final week of the 2025 NFL regular season. Let's take a look at a few upset picks the SI team is on.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Matt Verderame Week 18 Upset Pick

New York Jets (+290) vs. Buffalo Bills

Picking an upset in Week 18 is really about trying to understand motivation and who might sit. The Bills are playing their final game at Highmark Stadium, but they also have no reason beyond that to play anybody. Josh Allen is likely to see a snap to continue his games played streak and then sit for Mitchell Trubisky. James Cook might never see the field. It’s going to be second and third-stringers as Buffalo prepares for the postseason. 

While the Jets are truly horrendous and have Brady Cook (and his seven interceptions across four games) under center, New York has a real shot to win. The Bills’ backups will play hard, but the Jets should win if they play all their starters, even if it’s in hideous fashion.

Gilberto Manzano Week 18 Upset Pick

New Orleans Saints (+142) vs. Atlanta Falcons

The Saints might be the best team in the mediocre NFC South. They’ve won four consecutive games, including two against the Buccaneers and Panthers, the two teams vying for the division on Saturday. The connection of rookie Tyler Shough and Chris Olave has been on a heater the past month.

Iain MacMillan Week 18 Upset Pick

Carolina Panthers (+124) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been one of the worst teams in the NFL in the second half of the season, yet the betting market continues to set them as favorites, expecting the version of them that got off to a hot start will show up. This is a team that, since Week 8, ranks 24th in EPA per play, and they rank 28th in the league in Net Yards per Play throughout the season. The Panthers have been playing much better football and outrank the Bucs in almost every metric. I'm surprised Carolina is the underdog in this spot, so I'll back the Panthers to win on the moneyline and claim the NFC South.

Peter Dewey Week 18 Upset Pick

Carolina Panthers (+124) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Since their bye week, the Bucs are just 1-7, and they already have a loss to this Carolina team in Week 16. 

Tampa Bay also fell short against rookie Quinn Ewers in Week 17, and I have very little faith that this team can suddenly turn things around to win the NFC South. The Buccaneers rank just 20th in EPA/Play on defense and 22nd in EPA/Play on offense.

Carolina isn’t any better, as it’s also outside the top 20 in those categories, but the Panthers have at least won some big games – against Green Bay, Tampa and the Los Angeles Rams – so far this season. Carolina has been up and down this season, but it’s 8-5 against the spread as an underdog. 

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bryce Young and company win this game, as the Bucs have been one of the worst teams in the league over the last eight weeks.

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