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NFL Win Total Odds on the Move: Panthers Improve, Patriots Fall

The Panthers are the third-most bet on win total at the sportsbook.
Jan 7, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA;  Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) on the field in the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 7, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) on the field in the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports | Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Significant shifts in the win totals for two NFL teams have occurred since their opening at BetMGM, indicating potential changes in the betting landscape.

Carolina Panthers Win Total OVER/UNDER Odds

The Panthers, who opened at 4.5, now have a new win total of 5.5 at BetMGM with the OVER -115 and the UNDER -105 in the odds.

Under the leadership of new head coach Dave Canales, there is a wave of optimism in Carolina.  Canales, known for his role in turning around Baker Mayfield's career in Tampa Bay, is now expected to guide Bryce Young to a step forward in his second season.  

The Panthers also made significant additions to their roster, including pass-catcher Diontae Johnson from the Steelers, linebacker Josey Jewell, edge rushers Jadeveon Clowney and D.J. Wonnum, guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt, safety Jordan Fuller, defensive end A'Shawn Robinson and corner Dane Jackson. Texas running back Jonathan Brooks was also drafted to strengthen the team's running back room. 

Bryce Young has talent, but getting this team to six wins with Canales as a first-time coach is a big ask. If you aren't bullish on the Panthers, take advantage of this line more and grab the UNDER. 

Interestingly, most are bullish on Carolina. According to the latest data from BetMGM, the Panthers have the third-most OVER tickets at that 5.5 win total. 72% of bettors took the OVER, and the OVER also has 82% of the handle (money). Only the Steelers (7.5) and the Bears (8.5) have more tickets outstanding for the OVER. 

Patriots Win Total OVER/UNDER Odds

The Patriots have seen their opening line fall from 5.5 wins to 4.5 at BetMGM with the OVER -160 and the UNDER +130 in odds.

A combination of a new starting quarterback, a new head coach, and arguably the most challenging season schedule likely caused this shift. Whether Drake Maye or Jacoby Brissett gets the start, there are plenty of concerns with an inexperienced offensive line and a less-than-exciting receiving corps. The Patriots are currently underdogs in every game this season, and they have just +1200 odds to win the AFC East at BetMGM.  

According to sources at Bet MGM, 61% of tickets are for the OVER on the 4.5 win totals for the Patriots. However, only 38% of the handle (money) is on the OVER, indicating sharp bettors are bearish on this season for New England. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Jennifer Piacenti
JENNIFER PIACENTI

Jennifer Piacenti is a fantasy sports and betting analyst for Sports Illustrated. She serves as a host for Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio and has her own podcast, “Waiver Wired,” on the Extra Points podcast network. Piacenti is also a featured expert on MLB Network’s “Bettor’s Eye” and is a member of the esteemed Tout Wars, the fantasy baseball battle of the experts. She is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and is a 2020 Scott Fish Bowl finalist.

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