Nikola Jokic's NBA MVP Odds Jump, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Dip on Injury News

No one was sure if Nikola Jokic would be eligible for NBA MVP this year after a scary knee injury just after Christmas, not even bookmakers. But after the latest injury update on the Nuggets star center, he’s right back where he was on the oddsboard before hurting his knee.

Jokic, who is expected to return from injury today after being out since Dec. 29, is +550 on FanDuel to win NBA MVP this season. Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the outright favorite at -340 on FD, but his odds have lengthened a bit on the news. He was -425 at FD before Jokic’s expected return.

Before his injury, Jokic was averaging 29.6 points on a career-high 43.5 three-point percentage. He has 16 triple doubles on the season and is currently averaging a triple double with 12.2 rebounds and 11.0 assists. His 36.62 PER leads the NBA. He was second in the odds before his injury.

Of course, SGA was and is the outright favorite for a reason. The Thunder are an NBA-best 38-11, and SGA is averaging 32/4/6. He’s third in the NBA in PER at 32.04 and has only missed two games this season. Sometimes the best ability is availability.

Jokic, a three-time MVP, twisted his knee in late December and has missed 16 games. Players must play in at least 65 regular season games to be eligible for postseason awards. He’s played in 32 games thus far. The Nuggets have 34 games to go. Jokic can only miss one more game down the stretch to be eligible for MVP.

That, alone, should scare anyone off from betting on him. The Nuggets have seven back-to-back games on the schedule the rest of the season. Tonight begins a stretch of four games in six days. While he wouldn’t return now if he didn’t feel healthy enough, there’s no reason to push him when the Nuggets need him right for the playoffs.

The Nuggets are 32-16, a half game behind the Spurs for the second seed in the West and 5.5 games behind the Thunder. After a game against the Clippers tonight, they host OKC on Sunday followed by back-to-back games against the Pistons and Knicks on the road. They have four games against the Thunder down the stretch and two against the Spurs.

The Nuggets are +600 at FD to win the NBA Championship, behind only the Thunder at +110. That’s the goal the Nuggets and Jokic are chasing, not an NBA award. With the slim margin and low payout, I would pass on betting Jokic in this market.

NBA MVP Odds (via FanDuel)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -340
Nikola Jokic +550
Luka Doncic +1700
Cade Cunningham +2700
Jaylen Brown +5000

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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