North Texas vs. San Diego State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for New Mexico Bowl

A ranked team will play in the New Mexico Bowl for the first time ever this weekend.

Drew Mestemaker and North Texas are favored against San Diego State on Saturday. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

The nation’s top-ranked scoring offense will face a top-five scoring defense in the 2025 New Mexico Bowl. No 25 North Texas will face San Diego State as a 3.5-point favorite after losing its final game of the season to No. 20 Tulane. The Mean Green missed out on the College Football Playoffs, but can still end the year on a high note.

Drew Mestemaker leads all players in passing yards (4,129) and has completed 70.2 percent of his passes. He and Caleb Hawkins have helped power an offense that’s put up a ridiculous 44.8 points per contest this season. The Aztecs are giving up just 12.3 points per game on defense and have held eight teams under 10 points, though.

Here’s our full betting breakdown ahead of kickoff.

North Texas vs. San Diego State State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• North Texas: -3.5 (+100)
• San Diego State: +3.5 (-122)

Moneyline

• North Texas: -152
• San DIego State: +126

Total: 54.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

North Texas vs. San Diego State How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, December 27
• Game Time: 5:45 PM EST
• Venue: University Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• North Texas: 11-2
• San Diego: 9-3

North Texas vs. San Diego State Key Players to Watch

North Texas

Drew Mestemaker: Mestemaker threw three picks in a game for the second time this season against Tulane, but has only thrown seven interceptions on the year. The Mean Green quarterback has thrown three or more touchdown passes in six games this season and has eclipsed 300 passing yards five times. He could be tested against an Aztecs defense that’s been better against the pass than the run this season.

San Diego State

Lucky Sutton: Sutton has rushed for 1,237 yards and 10 touchdowns this year and has a chance to light up North Texas. The Mean Green have the AAC’s worst run defense and have given up 2,694 yards on the ground. Eastern Michigan is the only FBS team that’s given up more rushing yards in 2025. Sutton rushed for 110 yards in his last game and has crossed the 100-yard mark six times this season.

North Texas vs. San Diego State Prediction and Pick

North Texas snapped its six-game winning streak against the spread after losing to Tulane as a one-point favorite in its last game, but remains 10-3 against the spread this season. San Diego is a comparable 9-3 against the spread and also lost as a one-point favorite in its latest outing. The Mean Green’s shortcomings on defense could be crucial to determining the outcome of this contest. 

The Aztecs aren’t nearly as explosive as the favorites on offense, but do boast a respectable rushing attack that’s just inside the top 40 in total yardage and the top 30 in yards per game. Good running teams have given North Texas trouble. All three of the teams (Tulane, South Florida and Western Michigan) that the Mean Green have failed to cover against are top-20 teams in total rushing yards and rushing yards per game.

San Diego State has a top-five pass defense that can limit the favorites best weapon enough to cover as underdogs. The Aztecs are 1-1 as underdogs in 2025.

PICK: San Diego State +3.5 (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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