Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner Prediction, Odds for Australian Open Semifinals

World No. 2 Jannik Sinner is two wins away from his third straight Australian Open title, but he’ll have to go through the legendary Novak Djokovic (No. 4 in the world) in the semifinals.

Djokovic is lucky to be in the semifinals, as he fell behind two sets to none against Lorenzo Musetti in the quarterfinals before the Italian was forced to retire due to an injury. Djokovic was up 3-1 in the third set, but he even admitted he was “lucky” to advance.

Now, the Serbian will look to hold off one of the best young players in the game, but oddsmakers aren’t giving him much of a chance. Djokovic is a +760 underdog to win this match, as he’s lost each of his last five meetings with Sinner, including a semifinal match at the Australian Open in 2024.

Djokovic has won the Australian Open 10 times in his career, so it’s possible that he could pull off the upset against Sinner, but it won’t be easy. Sinner dominated No. 8 Ben Shelton in the quarterfinals, winning 6-3, 6-4, 6-4.

He’s made five straight Grand Slam finals, and he’ll aim to make it a sixth in this match.

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s path to the semis and my prediction for the 11th meeting between Djokovic and Sinner.

Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Novak Djokovic: +760
Jannik Sinner: -1080

Total

31.5 (Over -125/Under -115)

Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner How to Watch

Date: Friday, Jan. 30
Time: 3:30 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN+

Note: This will be updated once the official time for this match is released.

Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner History and Path to Semifinals

Djokovic won four of the first five meetings between these two, but since then it’s been all Sinner. In 2025, he beat Djokovic in straight sets in the semifinal of the French Open and the semifinal of Wimbledon.

In fact, Djokovic has not won a set against Sinner since their 2024 meeting in the Australian Open semifinals. So, this is an uphill battle for the 38-year-old, who did not look particularly sharp in the quarterfinals.

Novak Djokovic

Let’s be honest, there’s a good chane Djokovic isn’t in this spot if Musetti didn’t get hurt, so it makes sense that he’s a massive underdog against the No. 2 player in the world.

Djokovic’s history at the Australian Open is that of legends, as he’s won 10 times and has made the semifinal round in each of his last seven appearances (including 2026). However, he has not made the final in back-to-back years (2024 and 2025) and was a semifinal exit in every Grand Slam in 2025.

This year at Melbourne Park, Djokovic hasn’t really had to be tested, as he won by walkover in the fourth round and quarterfinal. So, he may be fresh for this match, but it’s also pretty hard to gauge how well he’s playing.

Jannik Sinner

Sinner has won back-to-back Australian Open titles, and he’s dropped just one set so far in this tournament.

The Italian knocked off Shelton (No. 8 in the world) and No. 22 Luciano Darderi in straight sets over the last two rounds. He’s looking to extend his winning streak against Djokovic to six matches in a row, as he’s beaten him in three straight meetings in Grand Slams.

Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner Prediction and Pick

Simply put, Sinner has dominated Djokovic in their recent meetings, and it’s hard to feel good about the 38-year-old entering this match after he was in big trouble in the quarterfinals against Musetti.

Sinner has dropped just one set in this entire tournament, and he’s won three matches in a row over Djokovic without losing a set.

There is no value in betting on the Italian at -1080, but he is -130 to win this match in straight sets.

Djokovic should be pretty fresh after back-to-back walkovers, but if he struggled with Musetti, it’s hard to see him putting up a real fight against Sinner, who has owned the Australian Open in the last few years.

Pick: Sinner to Win in Straight Sets (-130 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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