Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Dec. 5

The Denver Nuggets welcomed Aaron Gordon back to the starting lineup from a calf injury on Tuesday, and they promptly knocked off the Golden State Warriors in an NBA Cup matchup.

Gordon had previously come off the bench in his first game back against the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday.

Denver is now 11-8 on the season heading into Thursday’s matchup with the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference – the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Cleveland dominated the 2-17 Washington Wizards on Tuesday, and it is now 19-3 straight up on the season, including an impressive 7-2 road record. The Cavs’ losses have come on the road against Boston and twice to the Atlanta Hawks.

Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets haven’t gotten off to the best start this season, but they are finally healthy with Gordon back in action.

Let’s break down the odds, players to consider in the prop market and my best bet for Thursday’s action.

Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Nuggets +4 (-108)
Cavs -4 (-112)

Moneyline

Nuggets: +145
Cavs: -175

Total

237.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Nuggets vs. Cavaliers How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Dec. 5
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse
How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
Nuggets record: 11-8
Cavs record: 19-3

Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

Trey Alexander – out
Vlatko Cancar – out
Aaron Gordon – probable
Spencer Jones – out
DaRon Holmes II – out

Cavs Injury Report

Emoni Bates – out
Max Strus – out
Ty Jerome – questionable
JT Thor – out
Luke Travers – out

Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Best NBA Prop Bets

Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bets

Aaron Gordon OVER 21.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-125)

After missing several games with a calf injury, Gordon returned to Denver’s lineup on Sunday against the Los Angeles Clippers. He came off the bench in that game and played less than 24 minutes, but he was back to his usual role in the starting lineup on Tuesday’s win over Golden State.

In that game, Gordon finished with 15 points, nine rebounds and five assists – pushing his season averages to 14.8 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game – good for nearly 25 PRA a night.

I think he’s a value in this prop on Thursday, as it appears the market is still adjusting for him playing his usual role. Gordon has cleared this number in six of the eight games that he’s completed this season (he was injured and played less than five minutes in one other game).

Cavs Best NBA Prop Bets

Evan Mobley OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-110)

Cavs big man Evan Mobley has been as consistent as they come, averaging 9.3 rebounds per game this season while clearing 9.5 boards in 11 of his 21 games. As of late, he’s been in double figures on the glass just about every night.

Dating back to Nov. 9, Mobley has 10 or more boards in nine of his last 11 games. He’s got a tough matchup against Nikola Jokic and Denver, but I can’t fade him given this hot stretch he’s been on.

Nuggets vs. Cavaliers Prediction and Pick

Recently, I’ve pointed out a key trend with the Nuggets in the first half.

Formerly an elite first quarter team (in previous seasons), Denver has been a nightmare in the first half of games this season – partially due to its awful on/off splits when Nikola Jokic is getting a rest.

Denver -16.6 points per 100 possessions when Jokic is on the bench and +12.4 points per 100 possessions when he plays. So, when the Joker takes a breather in the second quarter, Denver is struggling mightily.

That has led to an awful against the spread record in the first half, as the Nuggets are just 4-15 ATS in the first half after failing to cover again as a favorite against Golden State.

Now, they take on a Cavs team that is 12-9-1 against the spread in the first half and No. 3 in the NBA overall in net rating.

I’ll keep fading Denver until this trend starts to level out.

Pick: Cavs First Half Moneyline (-155)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.