Nuggets vs. Spurs Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, March 12

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets need every win they can get down the stretch of the regular season in a loaded Western Conference, and they have a tough test with Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday night.

Denver is coming off a huge win over the Houston Rockets on Wednesday, but it’s set as a road underdog against the No. 2-seeded Spurs.

San Antonio has won 14 of its last 15 games and five in row, improving to 25-6 at home after beating the Boston Celtics on Tuesday. The Spurs won the only meeting between these teams (back in November) by three points.

The Nuggets have been banged up all season long, and it’ll be interesting to see who is in the lineup for them on the second night of a back-to-back. Denver has yet to release an injury report for this game.

Can Wemby and the Spurs get another statement win as they make a push for the top spot in the West?

Let’s examine the latest odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for Thursday’s clash between Western Conference title contenders.

Nuggets vs. Spurs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Nuggets +5.5 (-102)
Spurs -5.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Nuggets: +185
Spurs: -225

Total

238.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Nuggets vs. Spurs How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 11
Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Frost Bank Center
How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local), Altitude
Nuggets record: 40-26
Spurs record: 48-17

Nuggets vs. Spurs Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

Not submitted yet

Spurs Injury Report

Victor Wembanyama – questionable
Lindy Waters III – questionable
Harrison Barnes – questionable
Harrison Ingram – out
David Jones Garcia – out
Emanuel Miller – out

Nuggets vs. Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

Jamal Murray OVER 23.5 Points (-106)

Earlier this season, Murray dropped 37 points on 13-of-20 shooting against the Spurs, and he enters this game averaging 25.5 points, 4.3 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game in the 2025-26 season.

Murray had 30 points on 21 shots in Wednesday’s win over the Rockets, and he’s taking over 18 shots per game this season, shooting 48.3 percent from the field and 43.0 percent from 3.

The Spurs have an elite defense, but Murray is being a little undervalued here with this prop set below his season average. He’s scored 24 or more points in six of the last eight games that he’s finished (two games during his last 10 he left early with an injury).

I’m buying him in a marquee matchup with the Spurs tonight.

Nuggets vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

Injuries could play a major factor in this game on Thursday night, as Wemby’s status is extremely important for the Spurs.

San Antonio is 10-4 without the star big man this season, but losing him against Nikola Jokic and the No. 1 offense in the league would undoubtedly shift this line towards Denver.

The Nuggets are coming off a blowout win where they were able to rest some guys down the stretch against Houston. Denver is 8-6 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back this season, but there is another trend that leads me to the underdog in this game.

Denver has dominated as a road underdog, going 10-2 against the spread, posting an average scoring margin of -0.7 points in those games. Even if Wemby plays, I don’t think it’s impossible for the Nuggets to hang around in this game, as they’ve been one of the best road teams in the NBA (22-13) in the 2025-26 season.

Barring a major line move due to injury, I’d take the points on Thursday night.

Pick: Nuggets +5.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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